Saturday, September 29, 2012

A Growth Model for Greece - Energy

"Greece 10 years ahead" (GTYA) is the title of a study published by the Athens Office of McKinsey in mid-2011. It outlines a National Growth Model which, the study predicts, would create over 500.000 new jobs and add roughly 50 BEUR to Greece's GDP within a decade. The study consists of 72 pages. I have already explained in a previous post that I will make short posts about each major point of the study for those who prefer not to read 72 pages.

The study focuses on growth opportunities in 5 major 'production sectors' which are already of prime importance to the Greek economy and on 8 'rising stars', i. e. new sectors where present activity is still small but where significant potential can be expected. In this post, I will focus on the 'production sector' of energy (page 43 in the GTYA-report).

Production Sector --- Energy
GTYA's assessment of the current state of Greece's energy sector is rather devastating ("high energy consumption, low fuel efficiency, low labor and capital productivity and an expensive energy mix characterize the Greek energy sector"). Consequently, that sector would offer significant potential if only by turning it around. GTYA outlines 14 possible areas across four the following four areas:

Improving energy efficiency - streamline energy consumption mainly in buildings and transportation (adjustment and increased specificity of relevant standards; effective incentive schemes; parametric and progressive electricity pricing)
Boosting productivity - revisit regulatory framework; consider 'price and cap' system; fuel efficieny of plants; labor and capital productivity
Optimizing energy mix - develop National Energy Strategy
Increase 'extroversion' and sector impact - leverage up on geographical position of Greece (hub for gas?); involvement of Greek players in regional infrastructure and power generation projects; accelerate National Hydrocarbons entity

For details, please refer to the report. GTYA estimates the potential growth upside of roughly 9 BEUR more GVA in 2021 and the contribution to the trade balance could improve by 1 BEUR. 

Previous posts in this series: P1, P2, P3, P4.

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