Thursday, July 21, 2011

After today's decision by EU-elites

Let's see what possible alternatives there are:

Debt forgiveness: hopefully not!
Result: no debt was forgiven.

A new bank tax: hopefully not!
Result: there will be no bank tax.

More money like in the past: hopefully not!
Result: there will be more money. Not quite like in the past (longer terms, lower interest rates) but it is still more money for the primary purpose of repaying private lenders.

A complex financial scheme to convert bad paper into good paper: hopefully not!
Result: no such scheme.

Private sector participation: hopefully yes! (but not the way the French Plan stipulates).
Result: details are not known yet. It appears that the private sector will accept longer terms but will be guaranteed by the EU. It also appears that it will reduce interest rates.

Rescheduling debt: hopefully yes!!! 50% of the present debt should be rescheduled out to 20 years and interest on that should be capitalized and payable upon maturity! The remaining debt should be rescheduled out to 5-10 years with minimal interest payments during the first 5 years.
Result: basically no rescheduling of existing debt (from what is known so far). The new money will be for 15 years and replaces debt which matures. Thus, it does stretch the debt profile.

Overall assessment: this summit was surprisingly well orchestrated (no news leaks before the summit!). The "Operation Transfer of Private Sector to Public Sector Risk" has its budget increased by 109 billion EUR. The Greek government remains solvent. Nothing was announced regarding plans for the Greek banking sector and the economy. Before these 2 issues are addressed and resolved, one cannot speak of a solution of the problem.

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