An anonymous reader of my blog who makes time and again very thoughtful comments on my articles has made the below comment on my recent article "Betting on A Greek Recovery?"
Observing from outside or even at close range, you really cannot distinguish what is really going on. Overall of course Greece is bouncing back. Both on ground level and country level. This though does not necessary mean we still do not have the crisis still in hand. Nor will the wounds of the severe crisis be closed for many years. We will still have strict measures for many years to come and one from the inside can take that people have simply accepted them. Of course there is a sense of vengeance always boiling underneath.
On ground floor there are positive views in both the economy of black (less now) and white markets. Investment has never stopped and is showing itself and its only speeding up. This is evident with small business, middle sized and large corporations. Of course there are many large projects that will greatly help to the rebound of the country. Ports, airports, roadways, Trainose, energy, ellinikos and many more. All this will help the ground level economy to bounce back.
It will come when Tsipras leaves. He will have done all the dirty work and ND will come. Not that strict policies will not remain but I believe it will signal the rebound. I believe Tsipras is trying to show this rebound as so he can be reelected, but he needs to go.
Every year and as time goes by, the transportation of goods and works is growing on a large scale as you see the ships in the port. I see truck queues lined up everywhere for importing and exporting. Whichever it is, it is not necessarily bad or good, the positive you should take from this is that there is movement. For example, right now there is a great shortage of trucks for transportation of goods. This more so in the spring and summer periods when our agricultural exports also kick in.
We will rebound and I am sure of this now. Will Greek mentality return? To some small extent yes, but not the classic. We have changed like a chameleon changes its color.
In addition to the above you now start to see movement of people. In the deep crisis nobody would dare risk to leave their job. Now people are changing jobs at an increased rate.
For the average Greek though things are still hard. Not much room for black money considering the need to pay with cards as to acquire tax breaks for income taxes.
Overall, we are okay. If investment comes and the large projects move forward, Greece will be a force to be reckoned with.
"It will come when Tsipras leaves".....ReplyDelete
The next Greek legislative elections are set for no later than October 2019. Plenty of time for Tsipras to reclaim position.
The latest poll by Kapa Research (a polling co. of some merit), shows the ND-Syriza difference reduced to 4.8% only. There remain 25% of undecided voters ( rougly 1000000 in total) the great majority of which are OXI (No) voters in the lasr referendum which means neither ND nor Pasok voters.
So Tispras has the advantage and the next elections are his alone to lose.