I hope that there is something wrong in this Google-translation: the article would suggest a very disturbing trend in Greece's trade, as follows:
* February is the fifth consecutive month that exports recorded a decrease on y-t-y comparison. The last time there was an increase in exports was recorded last September.
* February is the first month since last September where imports increased (this despite a significant reduction of oil imports). Excluding oil, imports inreased by a phenomenal 16,4%!
Exports down, imports up? That would indeed be the wrong trend!
* February is the fifth consecutive month that exports recorded a decrease on y-t-y comparison. The last time there was an increase in exports was recorded last September.
* February is the first month since last September where imports increased (this despite a significant reduction of oil imports). Excluding oil, imports inreased by a phenomenal 16,4%!
Exports down, imports up? That would indeed be the wrong trend!
May I take this opportunity to remind you Ms Lagarde's recent congrats on the 'primary surplus, as we call it, which hasn't happened since 1943'...not noticing that in 1943 Greece was in the middle of a four-year occupation, following the (hardest ever) winter of 1942. Things are relevant and should be considered always in context....
ReplyDeleteThat issue about the "first current account surplus since 1943" was really confusing because it sort of implied that Greece did manage to have current account surpluses in the past. This is why I checked this with my contact at the Bank of Greece (a senior manager and author of several publications regarding Greece's current account) who told me that Greece has NEVER had a current account surplus since Independence. Perhaps he overlooked the year 1943 but, as you said, 1943 was not really a typical year for Greece.
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