Things in Greece have been incredibly quiet since June 17, the last election. The general view seems to be that this was only the lull before the storms, or even hurricanes, in September/October.
Will that be so?
One school of thought is that the government has already lost legitimacy because, in most instances, it did virtually the opposite of what the parties had promised during the election campaign. Instead of forcefully renegotiating the memorandum, they went overboard trying to comply with it. That, the thought continues, will lead to dissens among the coalition parties and certainly to a break-down of majorities in parliament. While this happens, Alexis Tsipras will return to the forefront of the action, mobilize the masses against the government and cause all sorts of foreseeable and unforeseeable disturbances. Perhaps even a forced resignation of the government.
I hasten to add that there could also be another school of thought. That thought would suggest that Greeks have gotten used to the benefit of having 2 or 3 months of reasonable quiet. While on one hand they have had enough of ever more austerity measures, on the other hand they have resigned themselves to the fact that there is no alterantive to it and that they might as well get it over with.
What if everybody expected chaos and chaos didn't happen?
Personally, I think there is fair chance for either scenario to happen. In case of doubt, I would opt for the latter. A revolutionary movement like that of Alexis Tsipras needs to be kept alive all the time. Once one takes a 2-month vacation from revolution, it can be hard to rekindle the spirits.
So, I will put this post on follow-up for October 31. By that time, we should have the answer!
Will that be so?
One school of thought is that the government has already lost legitimacy because, in most instances, it did virtually the opposite of what the parties had promised during the election campaign. Instead of forcefully renegotiating the memorandum, they went overboard trying to comply with it. That, the thought continues, will lead to dissens among the coalition parties and certainly to a break-down of majorities in parliament. While this happens, Alexis Tsipras will return to the forefront of the action, mobilize the masses against the government and cause all sorts of foreseeable and unforeseeable disturbances. Perhaps even a forced resignation of the government.
I hasten to add that there could also be another school of thought. That thought would suggest that Greeks have gotten used to the benefit of having 2 or 3 months of reasonable quiet. While on one hand they have had enough of ever more austerity measures, on the other hand they have resigned themselves to the fact that there is no alterantive to it and that they might as well get it over with.
What if everybody expected chaos and chaos didn't happen?
Personally, I think there is fair chance for either scenario to happen. In case of doubt, I would opt for the latter. A revolutionary movement like that of Alexis Tsipras needs to be kept alive all the time. Once one takes a 2-month vacation from revolution, it can be hard to rekindle the spirits.
So, I will put this post on follow-up for October 31. By that time, we should have the answer!
So Klaus is wondering how much further the can will have been kicked down the road by All Hallows Eve.
ReplyDeleteThat has a nice ring to it Klaus, will it be a trick or a treat, will we be able to tell the difference between chaos and calm.
Could there be a third alternative - the Left coalesce into a new coalition, thus putting ND into opposition as the scapegoat. Is that possible under the Greek constitution.
More importantly for the EU/EZ overall, not to mention Chancellor Merkel, is whether Jens Weidmann will still be running the Bundesbank. Or will he have thrown his toys out of the pram and joined brothers Stark & Weber on the retired hurt bench.
CK
My understanding is that, since ND has the benefit of the extra 50 seats, there is no way for another coaltion to get a majority. The Communists refuse to take part in a government and the Morning Dawn are simply unacceptable. I doubt that a combined Left could get over the 150 seats required.
DeleteOther than that, I will revisit this issue on October 31.