The Ministry of Finance's Annual Report about Borrowing and Debt for the year 2018 provides very interesting information about the solidity of Greece's public financing.
The bad news is that Greece's public debt now (at December 31, 2018) stands at 359 BEUR or 181% of GDP. Those are numbers which would, under normal conditions, signal a near-term catastrophy.
The good news is that those numbers currently present no problem at all. Very little of that debt will mature in the next few years and 83% of it is owed to the official sectors of other countries. One cannot think of a more stable financier than such official sectors. Last but not least, since the debt owed to the official sectors of other countries comes at extremely low interest rates, total interest payments in 2018 amounted to "only" 6,2 BEUR, which is less than 3,5% of GDP. Such a low ratio of debt service costs would normally represent a solidly financed public debtor.
And as a footnote: the 3,5% of GDP of interest expense just happens to be the same as the 3,5% primary surplus requirement which Greece's creditors have required. Put differently, Greece has an overall balanced budget (if not even a slight budget surplus).
To top off the good news: the Greek public sector is literally flush with cash: the Central Government has 27 BEUR in cash reserves and state entities have another 24 BEUR, bringing the total to 51 BEUR. Those reserves would cover interest payments and debt maturities for many years to come.
The bad news is that Greece's public debt now (at December 31, 2018) stands at 359 BEUR or 181% of GDP. Those are numbers which would, under normal conditions, signal a near-term catastrophy.
The good news is that those numbers currently present no problem at all. Very little of that debt will mature in the next few years and 83% of it is owed to the official sectors of other countries. One cannot think of a more stable financier than such official sectors. Last but not least, since the debt owed to the official sectors of other countries comes at extremely low interest rates, total interest payments in 2018 amounted to "only" 6,2 BEUR, which is less than 3,5% of GDP. Such a low ratio of debt service costs would normally represent a solidly financed public debtor.
And as a footnote: the 3,5% of GDP of interest expense just happens to be the same as the 3,5% primary surplus requirement which Greece's creditors have required. Put differently, Greece has an overall balanced budget (if not even a slight budget surplus).
It would be unfair for the next government to suggest that primary surpluses around 3.5% should be reduced to around 2%, the next few years?
ReplyDeleteIn many issues about economy there is a mixed or a grey reality which is not confirmed by solid facts.
eg unemployment rates acording to statistics.gr
http://bit.do/eXKCu
in page 2 from 7 the number of employed persons from
3,529,449 in 2014 increased to 3,698,869 in 2015 (almost 170.000) with GDP -0.3%, capital controls, much reduced gross capital formation, less direct investments and damage in banks (capital flight 40bn euros).
Unemployed in December 2015 were 1.159.123 according statistics.gr
The statistics authority is conducting surveys(polls) with a specific methodology and sample at the moment when OAED unemployment according to people's declarations in December 2018 were 1.116.816 mln(unemployed and non job seekers).
Unemployment according statistics.gr in December 2018 was 851,556.
http://prev.oaed.gr/index.php?lang=en
http://www.oaed.gr/statistika-stoicheia-ana-mena