This is one of the most important graphs about trends in the Greek economy: the index reflecting the expectations of purchasing managers in Greece's manufacturing sector ("Manufacturing PMI"):
The light blue field in the background represents GDP. In 2010, when Greece's GDP first collapsed, the PMI exaggerated that collapse. The same phenomenon occurred during the drama times of 2015-16 but then the PMI's exaggeration was much greater than before.
The point, however, is this: for quite some time now, the PMI is rising. Rising significantly above GDP growth. There is no other way than to interpret this as a very positive sign for the near future of the Greek economy!
The light blue field in the background represents GDP. In 2010, when Greece's GDP first collapsed, the PMI exaggerated that collapse. The same phenomenon occurred during the drama times of 2015-16 but then the PMI's exaggeration was much greater than before.
The point, however, is this: for quite some time now, the PMI is rising. Rising significantly above GDP growth. There is no other way than to interpret this as a very positive sign for the near future of the Greek economy!
In other words, this incompetent political part of New Democracy which is the local chapter of German skatology in Greece, has not even a change of being elected. We already know this.
ReplyDeletewhy do you mix politics with the economy. the real economy at least....
DeleteSyriza is on its way out and it will be kicked hard regardless if Greece becomes a shooting star...
The real economical adjustment was necessary. Regardless of how the politicians handled the whole crisis. As i have stated in the past, the memorandums if did one good thing, was to clean house of shadow companies which hurt the real healthy companies of this country. With this change such shadow companies can not arise easily every again into our market. For many reasons which i do not feel like enlightening you.
V
@ V
DeleteI am surprised that you are so sure that SYRIZA is on its way out. I certainly wouldn't bet my money on that!
Perhaps V you want to track the polls yourself, knowing that they have a 20+% undecided component. All you have to do is this. Pick any company out of thelist and then go back to its last forecast before the last the the one before. The trend is unmistakable. ND is losing big chuncks and Syriza has now the economy on the mend. So it's just a matter ot time when all ND "advantage is lost".
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Greek_legislative_election
To Mr. Kastner and Anonymous 11:23
ReplyDeleteSyriza will go and I am 100% sure. Meanwhile by two more election Syriza will be reduced to that original 3% they had 10 years ago.
Regardless of the real economy and how it is changing, all layers of society know well that the turnaround has nothing to do with what Syriza has implemented. They simply were the puppets Troika used to enforce once and for all the final line. Meanwhile Anel will disappear because they made even bigger kolo toumbes than Syriza.
The economy turned around because everyone was forced to find ways to survive. Within a crisis people find opportunities and is why things are bouncing back. The government is a detriment if anything. And the whole of society has only one thing in mind. That Tsipras is the biggest liar we have had this last 150 years. The only reason he maintains that 15-20 is directly relative to the public workers, who are also greatly disgruntled with him and fear ND. Especially that ND will make needed changes to the public sector.
Anel will die.
The small fringes of old syriza will die but will do their damage to Syriza. And old pasok is on the rise and will continue slightly.
Leventis party will die. And Potami will die.
These deaths, all favour the leader who will be ND.
Golden Dawn and KKE will have those same extreme percentages.
The unknown vote will be split analogically more or less. Again this favors the leader ND.
When election mood starts and campaigning starts the knives of the promises will arise. Syriza and Anel will be obliterated.
BTW, the Skojpia thing will also not help Syriza/ANEL. That is for sure.
ND will get full control but weak. This is good because it will force them to be careful for the new changes they will bring and not to make abrupt actions.
Personally if I had any Syriza party person in front of me the least that i would do is boo them. I would like to spit in their face if possible. That is the general sentiment.
Sincerely,
V
And here is my prediction:
DeleteBy this summer Syriza will achieve parity or near parity in the polls as measured by reputable polling groups such as Kapa Reasearch.
By September-October 2019 (time of the election) Syriza will be known as the only party which embraced reform, will receive tons of EU support and will sail through the next elections even by a small margin.
Then we come to the question you raised which is: what coalition then would govern Greece post 2019? I don't have the answer to this question because I don't know. What I know with certainty is that ND (this most odious and incompetent political party for many years in Greek history) will learn the opposition craft for a very long time (as it deserves).
I think you fall into the usual trap of trying to judge the condition of the economy based on your own circumstances. The numbers tell a different story:
Deletehttp://www.naftemporiki.gr/finance/story/1318796/pse-sta-2883-dis-anilthe-i-aksia-ton-eksagogon
You fail to see the adjustment in the economy is relative to the internal depreciation of up to 50% making Greece a cheap market to develop, manufacture and export from. The bottoming spiral of austerity was going to hit bottom at some point. And the entrepreneurs who saw and grasped the opportunity regardless of high taxes will reap the rewards.
DeleteThe change of economy has nothing to do with the dimwitted Alexis Tsipras. And if Greek people are so naïve or stupid as to believe that he is our savoir than we are "axia ths miras mas." Sheep to the slaughter house, or at least the next one.
To Anonymous 3:41.
No party is any great in Greece however Syriza proved to be the most destructive for Greeks.
V