Friday, December 30, 2016

Will Donald Trump Brand Germany As A Currency Manipulator?

A tweet by Yiannis Mouzakis drew my attention to an Analysis of Donald Trump's Economic Plan and a brief comment which was made on page 15 of that White Paper:

"A similar problem (of currency manipulation) exists because of the European Monetary Union. While the euro freely floats in international currency markets, this system deflates the German currency from where it would be if the German Deutschmark were still in existence.  In effect, the weakness of the southern European economies in the European Monetary Union holds the euro at a lower exchange rate than the Deutschmark would have as a freestanding currency. This is a major reason why the US has a large trade in goods deficit with Germany – $75 billion in 2015 – even though German wages are relatively high."

This issue is well know to many Europeans. The Southeners blame the North for having an exorbitant privilege and the Northeners tell the South that they knew what they were getting into when they joined the Eurozone. Both are right, in a sense, but neither side has a solution for the problem.

Now that Donald Trump will soon be President, this may all change in the near future. Trump has talked a lot about currency manipulators during his campaign, always with great passion and with promises for retaliative action, but his targets have been mostly China and Japan. Not once has he mentioned Germany but that was probably more by default (i. e. not knowing how the Eurozone works) rather than by intention.

An outsider to the Eurozone is probably certain that the Euro cannot be manipulated to the advantage of any one country because the truth is - it can't. However, it rests in the structure of the Eurozone that the Euro becomes too strong a currency for some countries (i. e. Greece) and too weak a currency for others (i. e. Germany).

Trump will probably tweet immediately that Germany should urgently revalue and France, Italy & Co. should devalue. This will be followed by another tweet where he says that his advisors have now explained to him that neither can Germany revalue nor can France, Italy & Co. devalue. At that point, Trump has probably realized that the Euro is a huge problem.

"Donald Trump has promised to use his Treasury Department to brand any country that manipulates its currency a 'currency manipulator'. This will allow the US to impose defensive and countervailing tariffs if the currency manipulation does not cease" - states the White Paper. Well, this is going to be an interesting situation!

Will Trump's Treasury Department brand Germany as a currency manipulator? It really can't because Germany isn't. But one can certainly brand Germany as the beneficiary of currency distortion which comes as a result of the structure of the Eurozone.

It would be an irony of history if the elitist defenders of the Euro were to be told by an American con man to stop pretending and to start fixing the structure of the Eurozone! That'd be something interesting to watch!

42 comments:

  1. Germany should be immediately branded as trade enemy #1 and a 15% tariff imposed on her from the get go.

    The numbers speak for themselves:

    http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4280.html

    Greece on the other hand should impose a 50-100% tariff on all German goods for as long as Greece is under the Troika supervision.

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  2. Globally, Germany's trade surplus is second in size only to China’s, but given that Germany is a far smaller country, it is only fair to measure it on a per capita basis — and when you look at it that way, Germany’s surplus is seven times bigger than China’s.

    Even worse, China is a developing country — and those are generally expected to run surpluses as they build up industries through exports. Over time, those surpluses come down, as domestic demand grows, and that process already seems to be underway in China. In contrast, Germany is a mature industrial economy, and yet its surplus keeps on growing relentlessly.

    In truth, Germany has become a machine for dumping deflation on the rest of the world.

    Its surplus with the U.S. is particularly acute. According to U.S. government figures, the country ran a deficit with Germany of $74 billion in 2015. Go back to 2006 and that was only $47 billion — it has almost doubled in a decade, and keeps on growing.

    Out of the total deficit for 2015 of $531 billion, Germany accounted for 14% of it, an impressive achievement given that Germany only accounts for 4.6% of the global economy. If you are sitting in the White House, thinking that you want to do something about the deficit, then it makes a lot more sense to concentrate on Germany than Mexico or China.

    That is not all.

    Much of Germany’s trade surplus is clearly the result of currency manipulation. The euro EURUSD, +0.2669% has depressed the real value of the country’s exports, allowing it rack up those huge exports. You can argue about whether China’s currency USDCNH, +0.1220% is really at its fair value or not — but no one can really dispute that Germany’s currency is way, way below what it would be if it still had the deutschemark.

    Even more significantly, there would be some real gains from taking action. When Trump talks of bringing back well-paid manufacturing jobs, it is hard to see how a trade war with China would help. Blue-collar workers in Michigan don’t really want to assemble toys 12-hours a day on near-starvation wages, which is what a lot of Chinese laborers do.

    But Germany’s exports to the U.S. are high-end goods such as automobiles, which account for 12% of its exports by themselves, followed by vehicle parts, chemicals and aerospace. Those are precisely the kind of well-paid jobs that Trump voters thought their man would deliver for them.

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  3. Will never understand this discussions on Germany being a currency manipulator. Of course do German exports profit from a low Euro but does that mean others don't profit? Where would Southern Europe stand with an exchange rate reflecting the German economical situation? Some would most probably be bankrupt by now others would complain about abysmal export chances.

    If someone thinks we all would be better off without the Euro then he should simply say so but leave me alone with this 'Germany is to be blamed for everything' narrative.

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    Replies
    1. These are not discussions; rather overt violations of EU treaties.

      Delete
    2. Quote: "If someone thinks we all would be better off without the Euro then he should simply say so but leave me alone with this 'Germany is to be blamed for everything' narrative."

      It is obvious that many Greeks find comfort in this harmless conspiracy theory. If they would believe their own narrative they would have left the EZ long ago.
      Urs

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  4. 60% of Greeks now openly resent and dislike the eurozone. Only 50% support the EU. By the end of 2017 the numbers would be far worse.

    The fragmentation of Europe has now begaun in earnest and it looks non-reversible.

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  5. In that case Tsipras should call another referendum, and this time a binding with a clear question, "do you want to leave the Eurozone and thereby the EU"? The advantages for Greece are numerous. It is the democratic way. Syriza would have the support of the people and a clear majority at the next elections. Greeks would have their sovereignty and pride.
    There is a lot wrong with the worlds economies, correcting it is, and has been, an ever ongoing task. The attempts will in no way correct the Greek deficiencies, that can only be done in Greece by Greeks.
    Lennard
    And a happy new year.

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    Replies
    1. No we have had enough of Germans setting the agenda for Europe. We thought it was made clear in 1945 that this is not permitted.

      Greece has nothing to gain from leaving the eurozone, because its economy has been decimated by Troika (i.e. German) policies. It is Germany that should leave the eurozone, and see how well it fares with the DM. Of course, it will not do so, because that would be suicidal. The same is true, for different reason, for Greece. So kindly desist with the malicious "advice" for Greece: we all know that Germans do not have goodwill to others as their primary motivation in life.

      Delete
    2. if italy is ready to do it why not greece?

      Delete
  6. Not Germany but the Club Med countries (yes, including France) should be made responsible for the down manipulated EURO. It’s Mr. Draghi and his supporters from France, Italy, Spain and certainly Greece that are voting for the ECB bond buying programmes not Mr. Weidmann, Head of the german Bundesbank who voices a quite critical view of these currency manipulating efforts. The club med countries had manipulated their currencies for decades in order to make up for their lack of competitiveness. Economists - mainly from hard currency countries - warned that the Euro won’t work, because of the economic and cultural differences between countries who favour a hard and those who favour a soft currency approach. They were ridiculed as backward if not reactionary guys who lack vision. Now, as their then warnings sound more than foresights of course noboddy remembers them. Why face the economic reality when you can find comfort in conspiracy theories.
    Urs

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    1. "Economists - mainly from hard currency countries - warned that the Euro won’t work,"

      How easy it is to (re)write history: - ... - !

      Woe are the poor Germans! Always victims of history - and those Frenchies!

      Little do they understand that when they talk about EU or EZ they still talk as if though about that "Lebensraum" of theirs...

      If one isn't familiar with these two constant delusions of the german nationalism, one can hardly umderstand how you managed to arrive at such a delusional idea of what Eurozone (or any monetay union) is and how it came to be.

      Delete
    2. Quote: "If one isn't familiar with these two constant delusions of the german nationalism, one can hardly umderstand how you managed to arrive at such a delusional idea of what Eurozone (or any monetay union) is and how it came to be."

      It is even harder to understand considering that I am not german. There goes another delusion.
      Urs

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    3. Quote: ""Economists - mainly from hard currency countries - warned that the Euro won’t work,"

      How easy it is to (re)write history: - ... - !"

      Look here, you can learn something:

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/euro/stories/german040398.htm

      It’s not me who has to rewrite history to support his arguments.
      Urs

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    4. Urs:

      What you just said is pure nonsense. Germans are well aware of the benefits of a manipulated low value euro. So far german has made 250+ BEUR from the eurozone crisis based on largely increased exports, zero cost financing and flight of capital to negative interest rates. If Greece defaults Germans stand to lose 17 BEUR. So let's do the math: You have made a profit already of 250 BEUR and you stand a slight chance of losing 17 BEUR in case of Grexit. That's a profit of 233 BEUR and increasing by the day.

      So what do you do if you are Germany? You keep bringing up Grexit again and again and thus affect the value of the euro towards maximizing trade profits. You keep reminding the Greeks that like the Britishe people they stand to lose terribly in case of an exit. But just like with the Brexit NO referendum we all now know that these 4th Reich tactics of scaring small countries to submission no longer work. But what do you have to lose? So take a Grexit pill in the morining, another at lucnch and two more before bed time and you have financial markets duly terrorized to your full advantage.

      Thing is that people are now seeing through such scare tactics and sending an undeniable message of "eff you" EU and "eff you" eurozone.

      Get it?

      Delete
    5. Quote: "What you just said is pure nonsense. Germans are well aware of the benefits of a manipulated low value euro. So far german has made 250+ BEUR from the eurozone crisis based on largely increased exports, zero cost financing and flight of capital to negative interest rates. If Greece defaults Germans stand to lose 17 BEUR. So let's do the math: You have made a profit already of 250 BEUR and you stand a slight chance of losing 17 BEUR in case of Grexit. That's a profit of 233 BEUR and increasing by the day."

      Actually you don˚t even know what I wrote and I guess that’s the reason you do not care to quote me, because you this would hinder you to argue against claims nobody made. I gave you the link to an Washington Post article from 1998. Read it and stop putting words in my mouth. Of course does the german industry profit from a low EURO ( As a Swiss I am well aware of that fact) and low interest rates yet the German saver does not. And btw. it was me who called Tsipras threats to leave the EZ a bluff. Thanks for finally acknowledging that I was (again) right.

      Quote: "So what do you do if you are Germany? You keep bringing up Grexit again and again"

      Funny, you completely ignore that it is the Syriza/Independent Greeks government that again and again brings up Grexit not the germans.

      Quote: "You keep reminding the Greeks that like the Britishe people they stand to lose terribly in case of an exit. But just like with the Brexit NO referendum we all now know that these 4th Reich tactics of scaring small countries to submission no longer work."

      Actually I never said or wrote the a Brexit will have terrible consequences for the UK. UK right wingers argued that in case of a Brexit the UK would turn to become another Switzerland - this is what I doubted - that’s all.
      In the case of Greece, well, go on and leave the EZ. Why do you think this has not happened by now. Why does Tsipras implement (or does he?) everything the Troika is asking for? Tell me.

      Quote: "But what do you have to lose? So take a Grexit pill in the morining, another at lucnch and two more before bed time and you have financial markets duly terrorized to your full advantage."

      Before Schäuble called Tsipras bluff it were the Greeks who repeatedly argued that if the EZ wouldn’t bow they would leave the EZ, financial markets would panic and the germans would lose a lot of money. Now you suddenly turn this arguement on it’s head. Very funny indeed.

      Quote: "Thing is that people are now seeing through such scare tactics and sending an undeniable message of "eff you" EU and "eff you" eurozone.

      Get it?"

      Yawn. Deeds speak louder than words.
      Get it?

      Urs

      Delete
    6. To Urs on January 2, 2017 at 10:09 PM and January 2, 2017 at 10:20 PM

      You know who also raged - raged I tell you! - against euro and warned loud and clear against abandoning the national currency in favor of a half-baked monetary union with the likes of Germany in our very own Greece; ΚΚΕ! That is the Communist Party of Greece, also decried back then, amongst many-many others, " as backward if not reactionary guys who lack vision".

      In another (more serious?) note, many experts or not-so-experts voiced in time their concerns about euro, be it in Greece, France, Portugal, Sweden, Spain… In fact, criticisms against euro, coming from many and diverse circles, were raised across the whole of what came to be known as Eurozone and I'm positive that there must have been a couple or two even in… China! As I'm also sure you know fully well that one of the most - if not the most - famous detractors of the single currency are certain prominent Americans. So, you see, the little story of German virtue you're trying to spin, it simply doesn't pan out…

      … and in the end it’s also completely inconsequential. As your very edifying article points out the German government couldn't wait for its baby to come out into this world. And for good reasons: they've set out the rules to fit themselves and the rest stupidly (κουτοπόνηρα, is better) - and, perhaps, treacherously towards their own people - followed their tune. The results speak for themselves: Germany is the one who benefited the most from the famous eurozone structural imbalances, and it did so, not only during the crisis, but also in the time before, when it aggressively devalued against its partners .

      (That is why I can't share europhiles' optimism about Europe evolving into a full-blown economical and political union since that would mean that Germany - and also secondary France - would need to give up not only much of its sovereignty but also to renounce these fortuitous structural deficiencies / advantages and admit that punitive austerity isn't going to be enough to address them)

      As for your constant little quip about Greeks having to abandon comfort stories and face up the EZ reality, I will - much more politely than you deserve - remind you that, unfortunately, my compatriots are the ones having to make do for years with a harsh economic reality, to which these structural "realities", so advantageous to others, have greatly contributed. (All the while, Germany can't even begin to bother to pretend to comply with EU rules pertaining to its massive trade surpluses…)

      You, one the other hand, safely tucked away into one of the world's more prominent and protected financial black holes, are very preoccupied with trying to mask your crime-and-punishment moralizations behind structural analyses that amount to the very profound: "it is what it is; now shut up, and take it!". As for you bringing up that you're not German as a kind of proof of your levelheadedness and impartiallity, that's exactly what makes your holier-than-though commentaries - where "holier" read "more German" - even more pathetic. Or, as we say in Greece: "βασιλικότερος του βασιλέως". Or, as other southerners put it: "essere più papalino del papa". Preuve à l'appui? You reacted all over the thread because you just can't even bear to see it spelled out that Germany may draw unfair advantages from this construct it championed for decades and of which it's one of the most influential members .
      Lykinos

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    7. Where is my lengthy reply gone? I did not use any 4 letter words or offending terms that would justify censorship. My reply to Jim Slip was posted after my reply to Lykinos and it shows up but this one is missing. Why? Sad.
      Urs

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    8. Urs, I checked all the email confirmations but I could not find anything from you which might have been deleted erroneously. Perhaps you pressed the wrong button somewhere. If you resend, I will post.

      Delete
    9. Thanks kleingut for clarification. I don’t think I pressed the wrong button, as there are only two to choose from (Publish and Preview) and none of them would delete my post. I assume some technical glitch or maybe my post was too long as I always include quotes from the post I reply to. Again, thanks for your kind reply to my not so kind outburst. If I find the time I will rewrite my reply (unfortunately I did not copy it).
      Urs

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    10. Every time a comment is made I receive a separate parallel email, so even if a comment is deleted erroneously, the email remains. I have gone through all the emails of the last week or so and verified that all comments have been posted.

      Delete
  7. Quote: (somewhat tongue in cheek, I guess: "In that case Tsipras should call another referendum, and this time a binding with a clear question, "do you want to leave the Eurozone and thereby the EU"? The advantages for Greece are numerous. It is the democratic way. Syriza would have the support of the people and a clear majority at the next elections. Greeks would have their sovereignty and pride."

    Quote: "if italy is ready to do it why not greece?"

    The Greeks are not stupid enough to believe their own conspiracy theories ("it’s all the bloody germans fault"). Tsipras, Syriza and the majority of the Greeks know that their situation outside the EZ would be far worse than inside of the EZ as they have no access to the credit markets (at least not at a prices (interest rates) they can afford to pay. The moment the gravy train from Brussels stops all their delusions will pop, many Greek banks will default and Tsipras and Syriza will be history.
    Urs

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    1. These are the words of a liar and a poor propagandist. The gravy train from Brussels will continue for a long as Greece is a member of the EU which means forever. Those who threaten Greece with non-existent punitive action are simly terrorits.

      The participation in the eurozone is a simple question of whether Greece wants to promote and facilitate german trade surpluses. I believe the clear answer to such fundamental question is a flat no.

      Delete
    2. Quote: "These are the words of a liar and a poor propagandist."

      You better brush up your english reading and comprehension skills before making (again) a fool of yourself.

      Quote: "The gravy train from Brussels will continue for a long as Greece is a member of the EU which means forever."

      So much for the delusion the Greeks will ever be able to care for themselves.

      Quote: "Those who threaten Greece with non-existent punitive action are simly terrorits."

      You better learn some basic facts. ECB is not allowed to lend to states who default on their sovereign debt. Leave the EZ and see what happens.
      Urs

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  8. Greece has made it a habit to live from other peoples money. They have also made it a habit to hate the entities who who supply it, in quick succession UK, USA, EU, EU/EZ and by extension Germany. I bloody well don't understand them.

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    1. I find this very hard to believe given how tidily you've got it all figured out in your head. I bloody well don't understand your modesty.

      Delete
  9. "Both are right, but neither side has a solution for the problem."

    On the contrary, the solution is obvious and has been suggested numerous times: fiscal transfers from the North to the South until capital transfers from the North to the South resume (as happened before the crisis). This will also strengthen the euro, as also happened before the crisis.

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    Replies
    1. Quote: "On the contrary, the solution is obvious and has been suggested numerous times: fiscal transfers from the North to the South until capital transfers from the North to the South resume (as happened before the crisis)."

      No, that is by any means not the solution. As you know Mundell’s Optimum Currency Area works under four assumptions:

      1. Labour mobility 2. Capital mobility 3. Price and wage flexibility 4. Fiscal transfers

      With the exception of capital mobility none of the above is politically sustainable (and I would claim that it is even economically not sustainable). Only much needed political and economical reforms in the former soft currency countries will help their productivity and create the basis for a sustainable currency union. I doubt that these reforms will be implemented and owned by countries that followed for many decades a different economic policy.

      Quote: "This will also strengthen the euro, as also happened before the crisis."

      Yes, in the short term as it will kick the can more effectively down the road. In the long term it would speed up the downturn of Europe as an economic power house.
      Urs

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  10. @ The gent who "bloody well don't understand them".
    Neither do I, not preventing me, by "Observing Greece", from learning to predict them. One observation is their perception of themselves. While they brandish their specialness they also deny all, perceived or real, allegations of supremacy, nationalism and racism. Their argument is so predictable that I win bets on it. It is the same regardless of age, gender and education. The defense is invariably that these traits are not part of the Greek DNA. There is a certain sad innocence in it, because it is not only how they present, but also how they perceive, themselves. Where did "all people being born equal" go? Whatever happened to "Alexander's Oath?
    Lennard

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    1. It is amusing how one whose sole reason for visiting this blog is to smugly state what`s wrong with those Greeks down to their rotten DNA, and how wrong they are on just about everything and how they should become if they ever wanted to stop being so wrong, seemingly doesn`t get how ridiculously hypocritical his appeals are for reconciliation, an open mind and rejecting prejudice . Predictable but amusing nonetheless. And if we are going to be honest, instead of you trying to school us by revealing to us the true meaning of our history, you should study up on (internet) polemics; after all you're doing it all the time.

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  11. @ Jim Slip. Transfers from the north to Greece has been going on for 36 years to Greece. They were called Structural Funds and other fancy names. The intention was to strengthen the productive capacity and cause convergence with the north. The funds were used for consumption, now you suggest to send them more? Unconditionally? Thank you, but no thank you.

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    1. The structural funds should not be confused with the private capital flows that took place after the adoption of the euro (from the surplus North to the deficit South). It is these capital transfers that allowed the common currency to exist without problems, considering there is no optimal exchange-rate for all countries involved. Since these capital flows stopped after the 2008 crisis, they must be replaced by fiscal transfers from the North to the South for as long as the problem persists. If not then the monetary union should be dismantled. The Eurozone can't be shaped in the image of Germany, i.e. one big exporter of deflation to the rest of the world.

      Delete
    2. Qute: "The Eurozone can't be shaped in the image of Germany, i.e. one big exporter of deflation to the rest of the world."

      You may notice that over vast periods of the 19th. century Europe had growth and a modest deflation.
      Urs

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    3. @Jim Slip
      Waiiit, you are jumping to some fast conclusions here!

      "It is these capital transfers that allowed the common currency to exist without problems" - not quite! It was these ridiculous and irresponsible capital transfers which allowed certain economies to live way beyond their means. A common currency zone never means that some participants should be able to live way beyond their means.

      "Since these capital flows stopped after the 2008 crisis, they must be replaced by fiscal transfers from the North to the South" - true only if everything else (like employment, living standards, incomes, etc. etc.) are supposed to remain unchanged. But that's not how a system works.

      In 1990, population of Detroit was 1,1 million and if fiscal transfers would have substituted the loss of capital flows due to the decline of the automobile industry, the population would have stayed there. Instead, it is now down to 690.000.

      The German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern receives massive fiscal transfers and yet, unemployment is still very high despite massive migration to the West. Why? Because the regional economy of M-V is simply not strong ("not competitive") enough to support itself at a reaonable standard of living.

      Delete
    4. @kleingut

      Yes but if the alternative is what the Eurozone (and Greece as an extreme case) has been experiencing for the past seven years, then *some* fiscal transfers should have been legislated as a mitigating measure, financed by the ECB if it's politically difficult to do otherwise.

      Detroit and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern aren't good counter-examples because these states don't have to finance defense spending or on social insurance. The federal government does that, so these fiscal transfers do exist. If these states still aren't economically dynamic, population declines etc, then so be it.

      The point is that a common currency requires fiscal pooling. If the Eurozone doesn't want to do it, then let's dismantle it. If the stronger members require a say in the budgets of the weaker members, then let's do that as well. But let's do something. Time is ticking and we aren't getting any younger.

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    5. Just to be sure: Detroit and M-V DO have to finance defense spending and social insurance. They do so through the federal taxes and socsec contributions which their residents pay. The only difference with Greece is that such taxes/contributions are paid to an entity outside the region (i. e. the federal government) which entity remains liquid and solvent even though Detroit/M-V on their own may be bankrupt and illiquid. The only point is: when taxes/contributions paid by Detroit/M-V residents do not suffice, other states jump in with their taxes/contributions (or the federal government takes on debt).

      Delete
    6. @kleingut

      It's not the same. Precisely because they are poor regions, they pay less on federal taxes. The army and social insurance is mostly paid by the richer areas, which also invest on the poorer areas in different manners. And that's the whole point of having a common currency. The problem is that the Eurozone refuses to move on in either direction, dismantling the project or finding ways of making it work (i.e. without economic shocks that damage the union).

      Delete
  12. @ Anonymous Jan 3, 2300 hours.
    I did not make myself sufficiently clear, I shall try. I certainly don't think Greeks have rotten DNA's. On the contrary, I think they have the same mixed DNA's as the rest of Europe and the world. I do not think our DNA's determine our later characters, cultures and values, witch would shatter my view that, human beings are born equal. i believe that values are taught to individuals by their human environment.
    Lennard.
    PS. Your contribution won me another bet.

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    1. It mustn't have been very difficult since you don't actually answer to that of which I have accused you. Anyway you've probably made up you mind from the moment you realized it's a Greek speaking or anyone defending any Greek position or anything Greek. In reality you're talking to yourself and congratulating yourself for it. It's been a pleasure.

      Delete
  13. Here is an interesting article related to the above subject:

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/greeceatlse/2017/01/06/economic-growth-for-greeces-trade-partners-and-greek-export-growth/

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    1. This is based on unreliable/old data and basically meaningless.

      The primary reason that it's meaningless is that 40% of all Greek exports are converted petroleum products and very circumstantial. For example trade with Turkey has now shrunk after Turkey constructed its own units of converting crude to petroleum based products instead of relying on Greek imports.

      The problem with Greek exports is that they are not well diversified and as such very vulnerable to changing dynamics of supply and demand.

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  14. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/exports

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  15. Really?

    '...Have no fear of perfection - you'll never reach it...' Salvador Dali

    https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2015/10368_09-cer-waiting-for-godot-updatekm-11003.pdf

    ReplyDelete