It seems to me that the most important outcome of the upcoming Greek election is that SYRIZA does not end up in opposition. While Alexis Tsipras has lost quite a bit of his former fiery self, he would quickly return to that in an opposition role. And, more importantly, SYRIZA in opposition could (and probably would) boycott the implementation of the Agreement which it had made with the creditors. The argument would be simple: "Yes, it is us who signed the Agreement but no, we would never have implemented it in such a destructive way!" And, sadly, chances are that many Greeks would, once again, believe him. Net result of all of this: instability.
Tsipras has ruled out a coalition with ND in any form or fashion. While that may only be tactics, one is well advised not to bank on it. The surest way to make sure that Tsipras and SYRIZA do not end up in opposition is to vote for them.
I have not studied in detail all the measures required of Greece by the Agreement but I have read that about 120 reform measures must be implemented before the end of this year and that many of these measures will really hurt. If anyone has a chance to survive the backlash of such measures, it is a leftist party. But no party can survive such a backlash if they have a leftist party in opposition. Much less a leftist party led by the pied piper Alexis Tsipras.
So, I am amazed as I watch what my fingers are typing right now but they are indeed typing: VOTE FOR SYRIZA!
Tsipras has ruled out a coalition with ND in any form or fashion. While that may only be tactics, one is well advised not to bank on it. The surest way to make sure that Tsipras and SYRIZA do not end up in opposition is to vote for them.
I have not studied in detail all the measures required of Greece by the Agreement but I have read that about 120 reform measures must be implemented before the end of this year and that many of these measures will really hurt. If anyone has a chance to survive the backlash of such measures, it is a leftist party. But no party can survive such a backlash if they have a leftist party in opposition. Much less a leftist party led by the pied piper Alexis Tsipras.
So, I am amazed as I watch what my fingers are typing right now but they are indeed typing: VOTE FOR SYRIZA!
---------------part of a package that had a better chance of succeeding than the previous two. For once this third attempt of making Greece work had the full support of the ----- government. This led to the establishment of an all-powerful Currency Committee that had to approve each and every decision by the Greek government effecting the economy. The committee consisted of the ministers of finance, agriculture, commerce and industry, plus-this was the innovation-two consultants who had the power of veto over all its decisions. The Currency Committee had extensive authority in determining the volume of bank credit, interest rates and the procedures to be followed at each step of streamlining Greece's finances. Thus the only way for Greece to regain sovereignty would be to make foreign aid redundant. This is indeed what happened as foreign aid was phased out in the 1950s.
ReplyDeleteThe future for Greece? The period from 1946 to the mid-50s, when an American and a Brit had veto rights over Greek economy.
Abstracts of Mark Dragoumis book "The Greek Economy 1940-2004".
Postscript.
It was only a temporary success. The Greeks kept the Currency Committee until 1982, enabling a handful of politicians to create modern days Greek oligarchs by controlling all credit. But that's another story.
Lennard
Hi Mr. Kastner,
ReplyDeleteIt is like you read my mind, but with all of this there is so much confusion. But what we must vote for, is something that will get the job done. Although ND has the backbone to implement the agreement, with Alex as opposition party not within the government we will soon be at elections once again.
It seems Alex knows things quite well as to survive as a politician. I am quite not sure if he now differs from the rest as to if he cares for the greek people.
If indeed Syriza does win they will take Potami and Pasok with them. On the most part ND will vote for the measures (manditory by the agreement) but i am afraid what side affects we will have. I am hopeful that Potami if in the government will enforce the privatizations and the review of the public sector. What i am afraid of is even more taxes to the real back bone of the greek economy, the private sector. He has shown no concern or care for the private sector. Meanwhile if he makes already privatized businesses stop what does it equate to?
In general they all piss me off. A few days ago, they were discussing the Lagarde list. By the end of this year 5 years will have past and it will be in the history books. That checks will not be able to be made based on law on those who have stolen from the past. Entrepeneurs and dirty politicians. It will be a dead issue.
I am hopeful that the new left party does and ANEL does not make it into parliment. The left as so we do not hear their idocracies and ANEL as so Syriza is forced to form government with Potami and lesser degree with Pasok.
I am weighing everything before i vote and under normal circumstances i would go ND or 2nd Potami, but considering the above I must vote what will get some more change going.
The end result is that i fear at the pace of changes to be made in Greece we will be in limbo for at least ten years.
Sincerely,
V
Mr. Kastner,
ReplyDeleteTo add to my previous comment. It seems the new left and ANEL will not make it to parliment. I consider this as good news and won't go into detail as to why.
I am thinking something else. As ND shows to be ahead meanwhile Syriza in other polls shows to be ahead, i think the masses of vote will decide who will be the 1st party. My 1 vote in the ocean means nothing between the two. I think to give meaning to my vote I should select a 3rd party such a Potami as to increase their vote base. Potami regardless of who is first will form a government with. In both scenarios the will help. So if they have a larger vote base with more MP's they will have more power as to implement. Meanwhile they have the largest concern for the private sector, at least based on their rhetoric.
The drawback from Ne Left Party not making parliment equates to the KKE % going up.
Sincerely,
V
Interesting. As far as I can recall your prognosis was a clear ND victory. What did change your mind?
DeleteVery simple. In August, Greeks where fed and wanted ND. There was a trend. Now that "old new" rhetoric was brought foward, people become skeptical.
DeleteThe Lagarde list which becomes "written off" so to say by end of the year gave people the impression that the old wanted to cover the past.
The above coupled by the specific article mention by Mr. Kastner has also been in peoples minds. That if ND comes to power Alex will begin his anti austerity rhetoric and we will be in elections again in 1 year.
People are not voting for what they want but what needs to happen.
Greeks are fickle but they are not voting for what they want but for what is ideal for stability.
V
Gianni Anieli was the first to draw this conclusion when Massimo D'Alema was appointed PM: "Oggi in Italia un governo di sinistra è l'unico che possa fare politiche di destra".
ReplyDeleteD' Alema was a staunch supporter of Tsipras, wasn't he?
P.S. Two parts from Alexis Papachelas' articles (in greek):
There is of course bourgeois... cynical version, as expressed some time ago, from a veteran politician. He explained to the panel that "it is necessary for Tsipras to stay a little more in power." Whenthe panel surprised asked him to clarify hi thought, he replied: "Gentlemen, you need Tsipras to sign (all measures) not to rule "...
Imagine any right-wing or centrist politician thanking the Americans publicly, Well Mr. Dragasakis did! Imagine any government signing a SOFA agreement with Israel and not bringing this agreement to th Parliament. Well, this government did!
Fool me once, fool me twice. Think before you make the same mistake.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kathimerini.gr/831321/article/epikairothta/politikh/apoyh-giati-o-syriza-einai-akatallhlos-na-kyvernhsei
Well I do not follow or comment on this blog very often any more as the work to set up an olive oil trading operation has reached the point that requires round the clock attention. What I didn't expect though was to return after ten days of absence and find our esteemed blog author suggesting that we vote for what is in essence a communist outfit. As we used to say in my university days "HOLY SHIT!" .
ReplyDeleteThat a man of our author's background and beliefs ends up voting for communists with very deep right wing pockets proves, in my opinion, only one thing: that Greece is, politically and socially, unlike any other country in the world and that the political content of the current mess is much larger than in any other country in similar condition.
On a different but related note some input on the refugee situation in Austria and surrounding countries shall be welcomed.
Well, we seem to have almost identical percentages a last January except that SYRIZA is now minus Lafanzanis, Konstantopoulou, Varoufakis and their crazy friends. One comment was that the Troika celebrates victory quietly. Someone else said that this was not an election but just a complex government reshuffle. And the GreekAnalyst said that it was a very expensive way to get rid of Lafanzanis, Konstantopoulou, Varoufakis and their cracy friends.
ReplyDeleteWelcome back Mr. Tsipras, shall we get on with the agenda where we left it?
ReplyDeleteThe Troika.
Oh, no Mr Troika.
DeleteYou see I have a new mandate, granted by the victory of the people. So we cannot go on, no we must go back. But not to where we were when I got my previous mandate in July, instead all the way back to where we were when I got my first mandate in January. You see I have a new Finance Minister, this time an experienced banker. His name is John Law, Mr Hollande recommended him.
The good news is that Tsipras is left (pardon the pun) with the hot potato. The bad news is that we shall see his sullen face whining "but I have a clear mandate".
ReplyDelete"I saw heaven standing open and there before me was a white horse, whose rider is called Faithful and True. With justice he judges and makes war. His eyes are like blazing fire, and on his head are many crowns. He has a name written on him that no one knows but he himself." It's peanuts, Tsipras is already on his Third Coming.
ReplyDelete