Alexis Tsipras: From "For Whom The Bell Tolls" To "The Sun Also Rises"?

Not too long ago, Alexis Tsipras recommended to his European 'partners' that they should read Hemingway's "For whom the bell tolls". Judging from last evening's interview, it seems that this 40-year old has discovered that the bell tolled for him. If he left it there, Hemingway would consider him a loser. Tsipras now needs to surround himself with people who can convince him that "The sun also rises" and who can show him the way how he can live up to the role which destiny has laid before him --- to become the leader who makes the sun rise again for Greeks.

Perhaps last evening was just another show of the brilliant showmaster. I am inclined to think that not. The signs of having been through a 9-day crash course in growing up to the real world were too visible. Some of his statements seemed to be reflections on how he truly felt.

To be sure, there were a few statements which he better should not have made. At one point, he said something like "I put my signature on a text which I don't believe in". There were a few others like that. But all told, these 'wrong' statements amounted to far less than 10% of the total. It is interesting to note that Central European media today focused entirely on these statements.

Over 90% of his statements caused in me disbelief that they would have come out of the mouth of Alexis Tsipras. The most extreme example was where he said something like "Raising the retirement age to eventually 67 is something which actually we should have proposed ourselves". Come again? Which Northern politician would dare these days to suggest that the retirement age should be raised to 67? Angela Merkel tried that a few years ago but she has backtracked since then.

Another statement where I questioned my hearing was where he said something like "Austerity and solidity will encourage foreign investment". Well, Mr. Tsipras, that's the whole point! If Greece could be reformed to become an attractive place for investment and an easy place to do business, foreign monies would flow into the Greek economy en masse. Whose money? Well, to begin with, the billions and billions which Greeks hold offshore earning zero interest, which could then be invested in Greece with much greater return potential! Money alway flows to places where the risk-adjusted return is the highest.

I am surprised that Tsipras would have justified austerity that way. Austerity alone, as important as it may be, will not attract a single Euro in foreign investment. Anyone who wants to know what attracts foreign investment should look at the criteria which the World Bank uses in evaluating countries as to their "Ease of Doing Business". Lay out a road map for Greece's becoming one of the easiest places to do business in Europe and you are home free!

To sum us: I had fallen for Tsipras' wonderful soundbites once before and I ended up regretting it. However, I am not sure that last evening's statements were the usual soundbites of Alexis Tsipras. They were more like the reflections of a man who had gone through an enormously high-speed and painful growing-older process. A bit like a woman who has, against her original intent, given up her virginity and who now wondered whether it was all worth it.

Perceived personal defeat and disillusionment can also be fertile ground for strong leadership to emerge. My gut tells me that Tsipras is aware of the historic opportunity he could have. The majority of Greeks apparently still stands behind him. It now all depends on the advisers with whom he surrounds himself; on the team he forms.

I think the large base of that team would have to consist of reasonable center-left politicians/technocrats with a fair representation of the Left and Right, just to keep the minority views present at all times. Responsible "Social Democrats" instead of passionate "Socialists". Socialists, as the saying goes, get into trouble when they run out of other people's money. Responsible Social Democrats understand that instead of going after other people's money, one should insist on a fair share of other people's incomes (and make sure that these incomes are there!). Or put differently: if one wants to milk the cow longer term, one better make sure that the cow is and remains healthy and strong (or as in the case of Greece: that the cow is made healthy and strong in the first place). I will close with one of my favorite Churchill quotes:

"Some people regard private enterprise as a predatory tiger to be shot. Others look on it as a cow they can milk. Not enough people see it as a healthy horse, pulling a sturdy wagon".