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Monday, February 2, 2015

Greece: Primary Budget Balance for January 2015

One of the key figures which I am waiting for are the January results in the primary budget balance. For the entire year of 2014, the Medium Term Fiscal Strategy MTFS (at least the version which I am looking at) called for a primary state budget surplus of 2,8 BEUR. The actual result was 1,5 BEUR. Here it is important to note that, in November and after 11 months, that balance had been 3,6 BEUR, followed by a primary deficit for December of 2,1 BEUR.

The January results should indicate whether the deficit of December was the beginning of a new (negative) trend of only a one-time aberration. Let's hope it will be a positive number because the budget for entire 2014 is a surplus of 3,6 BEUR, more than twice the actual result of 2014.

If, however, the January results were significantly negative (and below budget), then SYRIZA should change its tune towards Greece's creditors. The new expenses which SYRIZA has implemented will probably start ticking in February. If Greece is heading for deficits in the primary balance, SYRIZA's argument that Greece can survive operationally without further funds from abroad is out the window.

3 comments:

  1. I think that you are going to have to wait at least untill April for the effects of SYRIZA's policy. The new parliament will conveen on the 5th of February and legislative work will begin after the presidential election, around the middle of February. The January results will only indicate the inertia in the civil service during a government switch.

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  2. Mr. Kastner,

    Tsipras in recent interview, said "people must not stop paying taxes. They must pay ENFIA for 2014. What we said,is that they won't pay for 2015".
    You do understand why he felt the urge to say such thing... Tsipras in opposition, was supporting the leftist movement "Den plirono, den plirono" ("I won't pay, i won't pay"). Curious how now he addresses his audience to remind them to pay, isn't it...

    Prof. Varoufakis, in the past, has explained a solution to the problem you describe. Top-down cuts on pensions and wages.

    But that wouldn't quite be what SYRIZA had promiced, would it...

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    1. Hi,

      Whatever Syriza has promised for tax reforms is the future and there was no statement of stopping running tax liabilities. I will pay this month my last ENFIA property tax installment. All greeks should as it has nothing to do with the platform of Syriza. It was a part of the past but the countries assets need to still come in and create revenue.

      We Greeks are pretty idiodic sometimes. Syriza is making a damn pledge to Europe to allow us to change and prove we can change. NOW IS THE TIME TO PAY YOUR TAXES. To show consistancy in some kind of program even though a new program is coming in. If we do not help the new govrenment "buy" time we will simply make their jobs harder and shoot ourselves in our own foot.

      Even if Syriza allegdly abolishes the ENFIA, they will come and bring some other fair system. You will still need to pay taxes. If you paid some extra money to the governement there are proof of trasnacations and you will be credited for future tax requirements.

      Seems like Greeks are also good at kicking the can down the road too....

      This reduction in revenue of the new governement has annoyed me quite alot. Syriza, really needs to say the truth. "Pay your running taxes and in the meantime we will set up the new program!!!!!!"

      V

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