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Wednesday, December 27, 2017

ELSTAT, Andreas Georgiou --- And A Slap In The Face!

What would be a good definition of a 'slap in the face'? Well, if you happen to be a current or former associate of ELSTAT and if you are still convinced that Andreas Georgiou conspired against Greece and reported inflated deficit numbers to Eurostat in order to bring unnecessary pain upon Greece, here is a recipe: Write to the American Statistical Association, provide them with evidence and ask them for a ruling that "the Greek public debt and deficit burdens have been unjustifiably exaggerated, that they have actually been created, instead of describing the 2009 reality."

When the American Statistical Association then answers that "the evidence confirms exactly the opposite (of the above allegation). This and the many other troubling statements in your letter raise significant questions about the ethics and integrity of your allegations", well, then you know what a true slap in the face is.

Below is the text of the response by the American Statistical Association and here is a tweet about it.





From: Wasserstein, Ronald L.
Sent: Sunday, December 3, 2017 5:35 PM
To: 'Zoe Georganta' <zoe.georganta@gmail.com> Subject: your letter of October 27, 2017
Dr. Georganta and Dr. Logothetis,
Your letter of October 27, 2017, has been carefully reviewed by many people, including the members of the ASA Board of Directors. No evidence that you have presented or that we can find confirms your basic premise that "the Greek public debt and deficit burdens have been unjustifiably exaggerated, that they have actually been created, instead of describing the 2009 reality." Rather, the evidence confirms exactly the opposite. This and the many other troubling statements in your letter raise significant questions about the ethics and integrity of your allegations.
Sincerely,
Ronald L. Wasserstein
Executive Director
American Statistical Association
Promoting the Practice and Profession of Statistics® 

34 comments:

  1. Out of curiosity. Does a person blowing bubbles in his official avatar strikes you like a serious person? Because to me it comes across as some sort of a clown.

    https://twitter.com/Ron_Wasserstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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    1. A statistic guy with humor - great!

      BR
      Sutje

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    2. Not so great when the person you are talking to is a fabricated fake.

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  2. Having read the transcripts of 2 interviews in Dialogos Radio with the 2 persons, I am not surprised by the harsh answer from ASA. Not only are the interviews full of lies and fabrications, they also exhibit pure hate and envy.
    EU, IMF Manufacturing Greek Debt Crises through Unscrupulous Accounting (Georganta).
    Interview with Whistleblower Nicos Logotheris on ELSTAT Scandal.
    Lennard.

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    1. http://dialogosmedia.org/?p=7295

      http://www.mintpressnews.com/whistleblower-greek-debt-crisis-manufactured-unscrupulous-accounting/228076/

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    2. I have now read the interview with Logotheris. That, of course, is extremely seductive and I can see why Greeks might fall for his story. I have written before about Georgiou, about the fact that he was brought in from the outside and essentially had the domestic phalanx against himself. I was once in a situation like that and it can test the limits of one's existence! Now, if Georgiou had been the world's stastistics genius, he might have prevailed but even then it would have been uncertain. However, he was more of a general manager, not from an executive level at that. In short, the man had no chance to prevail against the domestic phalanx and they presumably sent him into circles. The only point of support for him was Eurostat, and if that doesn't suffice to make him appear as a traitor, I don't know what does.

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  3. Georgiou is a non-issue for Greece or the Greeks. If you want to debate something of substance then please begin to analyze the reasons why ND will never recapture power in the next elections of 2019. You can begin by trying to deconstruct the positions of the present government:

    http://www.naftemporiki.gr/story/1308139/d-tzanakopoulos-o-syriza-den-exei-na-sugkrithei-me-tin-kolossiaia-apotuxia-samara-benizelou

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  4. And just in case you wish to start a meaningful debate as to why ND is doomed in the next elections, then please refer to this real data which has nothing to do with ideologies but clearly reflects the mood of the people. Reasons 2 through 5 are all insurmountable obstacles for ND. And the findings are not peppered by any ideological biases or propaganda spinning which is very typical of empty political rhetoric which confuses people and turns them off:

    http://www.naftemporiki.gr/story/1308142/kapa-research-10-eurimata-pou-ksexorisan-to-2017

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  5. Wait. Did I post the reasons or not? Just in case:

    http://www.naftemporiki.gr/story/1308142/kapa-research-10-eurimata-pou-ksexorisan-to-2017

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  6. Klaus, I admire your perseverance writing about Greece. Many thanks and best wishes for a Happy New Year.


    H.Trickler

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    1. I return your wishes for a Happy New Year. You overstate my perseverance. From 2011 (half a year) to 2015, I wrote well over 200 articles annually. Then my perseverance declined. In 2016, it was only 88 articles and in 2017 even less, only 58 articles. I am running out of things to say. It's always the same story. My readers' interest is similarly declining: in peak times (like in mid-2015 and mid-2016), I had up to 60,000+ monthly clicks. Now am am down to about 10,000 (declining trend). Such is life...

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    2. Regarding the 60,000 clicks vs. the 10,000 declining clicks.

      This ought to tell you that perhaps yourself were a populist back then offering German audiences the sort of nonsense they wanted to hear.

      Now that Germany and Austria face other issues, which they should by the way, of course the "fabricated Greek crisis" no longer sells:

      Bottom line: Take care of your own dirty house and leave Greece alone, which by comparison is a 5 star hotel.

      The so called Greek crisis was 100% politically engineered by the worst sclerotic ideologies one could possibly hope never to encounter but nevertheless they follow you like the plague.

      But don't worry. The global events which will bring a catastrophic German downfall are only beginning and they will get far more worse in the years to come.

      And then you will see whether any statistician would be able to beautify the ruins left behind. Just watch.

      And I hope then, you switch the blog's name to "Observing Germany" because there will be plenty to laugh about.

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    3. I have looked up the stats. Clicks from Greece have been a clear Nr. 2 history-to-date (clicks from the US are far ahead in Nr. 1 spot). Germany ranks a little more than half of Greece in Nr. 5 spot and Austria is way down at the bottom with only about 30,000 clicks history-to-date. So if I ever change the blog's name, I should probably change it into "Observing the USA" instead of "Observing Germany". Don't you think?

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    4. I don't understand the mentality of people wanting the demise of a different people. Ex. Germany however the politicians have dealt with our system and problems through the eu, the people in my pop have strongly supported us in there individual ways. No need to get into detail. Why would I want the german general public which supports us directly, to suffer. It would only diminish that direct support. The USA on the other hand helps us political, so to say, but on the ground they do very little, aside from some few tourists.

      Be careful for what you wish for anonymous 9.06.

      V

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  7. @ kleingut.
    At a glance it is seductive, and I have noticed many Greeks subscribing to Logothetis explanation that the bail outs were pre-planned, pre-determined and done with malice. However, to accept that view one must accept that millions of people, in a lot of countries, were willing to pay a lot of money, for the sole purpose of depriving Greeks of their dignity and honor? That is skirting paranoia too close for my comfort.
    Lennard.

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    1. By analogy, one could say that the catastrophe of 2010 was pre-planned, per-determined and done with malice by the Greek political elite (& Co.) in the 30 years before, knowing that they would eventually end up in misery but also knowing that a good portion of the 300 BEUR of debt and almost 200 BEUR of EU subsidies would end up in safe private pockets.

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  8. No. The fact that you have many clicks from the USA is because of my gracious magnanimity and good nature in trying to help you to revive this blog. So don't bite the hand that feeds you. :) And just because someone is giving you crap from the United States does not mean that he is your enemy. Last I checked, shitting on a pile of freshly produced manure, keeps one warm and cozy. (Key life lesson #1)

    Now, let's get back to the main dish. Why again you bloody Germans are creating problems for Greece in such a delicate matter as the Greek EEZ? Who the eff asked you to interfere on issues which you hardly understand? When are you going to stop showing your ugly face, especially now that the majority of Greeks clearly (latest poll) consider the United States as the #1 friend of Greece? And China, Russia and France as lesser friends? When are you going to get the message that you are not welcomed in Greek affairs any longer? When you are going to understand that Greece will never be under a German sphere of influence?

    http://www.protothema.gr/greece/article/746737/ebloki-me-to-germaniko-ploio-i-athina-akurose-tin-adeia-gia-ereunes-sto-aigaio/

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    1. Ah, those Germans again! And they keep loving Greece even though they get so much flak from Greeks: in the 3rd quarter of 2017, 1,9 million Germans travelled to Greece. That's far ahead of the UK, the next lover of Greece, whence 1,6 million travelled and far ahead of Italy, the Nr. 3 which accounted for 1,0 million. In fact, more Germans travelled to Greece than all the cruise visitors combined!

      You would be surprised to learn how many Germans disagreed with the government's role in the Euro-mess of the last 7 years. They have been very restrained in the presence of all-powerful Merkel but as Merkel's political strength evaporates (which could very well happen soon), they will come to the forefront.

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    2. Apparently German and Austrian humor is in short supply. :)

      And what will happen (this is not a humorous question, I assure you) when the "loyal Germans and genuine lovers" of Greece could save 50 euros from their tourist package and travel to Turkey instead?

      I guess your line of defense then would be that they are admiring and loving Greece from a small distance, totally heartbroken by Greek rejection and begging to allow for a 100 euro reduction in their tourist packages so that they could be reunited with their lover again(the mere image of whom incidentally brings tears into the loyal German eyes).

      O.k. Please prevent a mass suicide in Germany and Austria on the grounds of Greek rejection. Let me see what I can do. :)

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  9. According to a dear old Greek lady in my local Sklavenitis yesterday, the dastardly Germans have delivered yet another blow to Greek pride. They have introduced a 4 cent tax on plastic shopping bags.

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    1. Better to use cloth bags which are reusable. You roll them together and bring them with you.

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  10. I do appreciate that you acknowledge (&Co) that it takes more than 1000 politicians to drain the state of BEUR 500.
    But in between a nest egg of MEUR 0,5 for 1 million fat cats and EUR 45455 for each citizen, it is anybody's guess.
    Regardless, it should keep them in plastic bags for a while. (1,25E+13).
    Lennard.

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    1. Thus the innocent amidst the ranks - an ocean- of the guilty. You are a caricature.

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  11. As we said before there is only one indicator by which to judge government performance:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND

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    1. I wouldn't necessarily agree with that. I think everyone is in agreement that Greece's debt at market rates and market tenors is not sustainable. The only reason why it currently appears sustainable is the full backing of the EU (and IMF) with way below market rates and tenors which the market would never offer. Of course, the drop in yields is due to the government's performance: since they basically agreed to every measure, however ridiculous, which was put to them by the Troika, they have strengthened their credibility versus the Troika (and indirectly versus the markets). While that, indeed, is a performance, it is not the real performance which Greece needs.

      Still, a government's performance should not be judged alone by how happy it makes its creditors. That only has a short-term impact. The government's performance should be judged by how well it reforms the economy in order to make it efficient and competitive, which would lead to sustainable growth, employment, tax revenues and so forth. And if and when the latter occurs, lower capital market yields will be of a longer-term nature.

      Capital markets always have a pro-cyclical impact: when things go well, everybody jumps on the bandwagon and accelerates the trend. When things run into trouble, everybody wants to get off the bandwagon and accelerates the demise.

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    2. Greece aside, the Eurozone really needs to put an end to this facade that "the markets" control public debt. In order to do this the ECB must act as a proper central-bank and honor and support the bonds of member states, treating them not only as debt instruments, but also as liquidity instruments for the European banking sector as a whole. In short, the Eurozone must act as one and not as a fragile alliance of disparate countries that don't want to be together. If it doesn't, sooner or later the crisis will reappear.

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    3. Kleingut:

      When the 6-month treasury rate goes down from 3% to 1.8%, it simply means Greece is left with more discretionary money to spend elsewhere other than debt service.

      Why don't you give Greece close to 0% rate for its 10-year bond and see how fast Greece could get out of this perpetual financial crisis?

      I think it's some sort of EU hypocrisy to want Greece to pay higher debt rates so that Greece is subject to MOU constraints (in other words a clear instrument of control for obedience) and then when Greece begins to lower its debt cost (and thus liberate itself from the sterile EU supervision) to immediately cry out that dropping yields are not markers of government performance. Of course, they are. If the government's(not only the present government but any Greek government) job is to regain Greek sovereignty, don't you think that EU consternation for more Greek independence sort of sounds a hollow protest? Is your goal to subjugate Greece or see Greece prosperous and thriving?

      By the way, here is a New Year's gift to all readers of your blog, hot off the press. The uber interesting "Fire and Fury" on audiobook which unmasks the imperfect German by the the name of Trump (Merkel's US version) - "the put a German as head of your country and destroy it" theme _ Hope you can get 100,000 clicks on this. Enjoy and prosper.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OD2DTAAUL5Y

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    4. The issue in the comment was not the 6-month treasury rate (at which Greece borrows a lot and, thus, benefits from rate declines) but, instead, the 10-year bond rate (at which Greece borrows hardly anything and, thus, has no real benefit from a yield decline).

      You are apparently new to my blog. Otherwise you would know that I have been arguing for ages that the solution to Greece's debt problem is to reduce the interest rates very close to zero and extent the tenors to very close to eternity.

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    5. Kleingut:

      I have to disagree with you that the 10yr bond rate does not matter. It matters a lot.

      Take for example the IMF debt for which Greece pays 4.5% interest. Today the 10yr Greek bond rate close at a record low 3.6%.

      So if you simply replace the IMF debt with newly issued Greek debt at 100-150 basis points lower rate you are saving money which you could then spend elsewhere with ensuing dividends rather than making the IMF rich.

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    6. BTW, the IMF stands at 3,5%, I believe (far too high!). Anyway, do you really think Greece could sell a 10-year bond today? And the 10-year bond you quote with a record low: what is the remaining period of that bond? It can't be 10 years because Greece hasn't issued any 10-year bonds of late. So it's really not indicative of 10-year Greek risk, is it?

      The lowest financing cost around is still the EU/ESM, at least until 2022. So if Greece borrows from markets, it may make sense to build up a liquidity cushion and/or to make good news but in terms of budget costs it is not smart.

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    7. In such case, let Greece replace the IMF debt with a 2yr treasury issue at 1.43%. In 2 years it might have better options to recycle the debt again at lower rate.

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  12. Its not only Georgiou.

    Mr Liargovas was the head of pbo.gr

    His term was not renewed because in 6-7 November 2017, he used the latest available data (2013-2014) for a debt evaluation document.
    Ηis term was to expire at the end of the same month.

    http://www.kathimerini.gr/937933/article/epikairothta/politikh/telos-o-p-liargkovas-apo-epikefalhs-toy-grafeioy-proupologismoy-ths-voylhs

    http://www.cnn.gr/news/politiki/story/104667/aixmes-voytsi-gia-tis-ektimiseis-toy-grafeioy-proypologismoy-tis-voylis

    https://left.gr/news/oi-anakriveies-stin-ekthesi-toy-grafeioy-proypologismoy-toy-kratoys

    Liargovas estimated that the interest payments from 2021-2026 were around 85 bn €, but Tsakalotos (and pdma) estimated the needs 24-36% lower.
    Liargovas omission according to government members was that he do not evaluate the short term measures of debt implemented at the end of 2016 and also that during 2013-14 the 80% of interest rates was floating.
    However institutions like iobe,kepe,pbo, and hellenic fiscal council have not received from ministry of finance but especially from pdma any updated data.
    Tsakalotos think Liarkovas views as biased, so the president of the parliement Voutsis was not renew his term.
    He stays in his position at pbo until a replacement to be found.

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    1. You understand of course that PBO is a mickey mouse institution. They are always off.

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    2. Can mention one more specific expample of miscalculation from pbo?

      All the institutions i referred to, established, in order to give a more independent view of the economic data from governments, to give consultation, some ideas, underline possible weaknesses, make projections and generally present facts.

      https://goo.gl/uZsfv9

      The english translation of July-Sepetember 2014.

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