"I no longer understand the policies of the Greeks. It is unacceptable that Greece acts like a travel agency and simply sends all refugees onwards to the North!" - Werner Faymann, Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Austria, a member of the EU. The comments are about a fellow member of the EU.
Is Werner Faymann an enemy of Greece?
Flashback to June 2015. The Greek debt crisis had reached boiling stage. In the Eurogroup, the ratio was 17 against 1. Greece had become a pariah. And in the midst of all of that, Faymann decided to visit Greece to express solidarity to Alexis Tsipras and the Greek people. Not all his European colleagues thought that this was a good idea. In fact, several of them criticized Faymann for sending out the wrong signal. And yet, Faymann warned that Greece must not be humiliated; that further linear budget cuts made no sense and would only hurt the poor; and that an honest compromise was necessary. From then on, Alexis Tsipras used the phrase "my friend Werner".
Flashback to October 2015. The refugee crisis had become a true "Völkerwanderung". Faymann decided to visit "his friend Alexis" to lend support. Together, they visited the island of Lesbos. "When masses of people are heading North towards the border, they cannot be stopped very easily", Faymann was quoted as saying after visiting a Hotspot under construction.
Around the same time, Faymann started a feud with his Hungarian counterpart Victor Orban. Orban's erecting a border fence was a slap in the face of humanitarian values, Faymann argued. His bussing of refugees from the Croatian to the Austrian border reminded Faymann of the transportation methods of the Nazis.
Four months after that, Austria hosted a Balkan Conference in Vienna. Having just set upper limits for refugees, Austria negotiated an agreement where the flow of refugees would be more of less stopped; at least reduced to very low levels. All countries would help to fortify the Greek/FYROM border so that refugees could no longer cross in an uncontrolled way. Even though it was not the intent of the Balkan Conference, the result clearly is that Greece will turn into a "warehouse for all refugees", to use Alexis Tsipras' words.
Greece was not invited to the Balkan Conference, which certainly is an injury to its interests. When asked why Greece had not been invited, the Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Kurz said that "Greece has not demonstrated any interest to be constructive in the refugee crisis. There have been innumerable meetings and conferences with Greece. Except: Greece was never prepared to even discuss a reduction of the refugee flow. Greece only wanted to discuss how to send refugees as quickly as possible on to the North". That undiplomatic frankness added insult to injury.
One is inclined to think that Austria had a change of government. The previous government had clear humanitarian priorities and defended European values. The new government, installed in the beginning of 2016, made Victor Orban of Hungary look pale. Not only did it announce an upper limit for refugees but, literally overnight, it recreated the spectre of the Habsburg Empire where sly Vienna often was in defiance of arrogant Berlin. Diplomatic niceties were of no importance to the new government. Instead, the Interior Minister opened the Balkan Conference with the words: "Our intent is to provoke. Our intent is to initiate a domino effect. We want to cause a chain reaction of reasonableness".
Except, there was no new government in the beginning of 2016. It was the same government and the same ministers as the year before.
My intent is not to justify the conduct of Austria's government. Instead, my intent is to explain why the government has undergone such a radical change of conduct in the hope that this will be of service to my Greek readers.
I think it is important to differentiate between the flow and the stock of refugees. The flow are the hundreds of thousands of refugees who have crossed European borders in recent years. The stock are those refugees which decide to stay within the borders of one country. The flow incurs one-time costs (temporary infrastructure, transportation, logistics, etc.). The stock incurs permanent costs for generations to come.
Austria, too, has bussed hundreds of thousands of refugees from its Southern borders to the border with Germany and it has earned much anger from Germany for doing that. However, Austria has also built up a stock of 95.000 refugees in the year 2015 alone. Under current laws, these refugees will be entitled to bring along their families and the general expectation is that this will trigger a multiple of 3-4. In other words, 2015's stock of 95.000 will automatically become a stock of 300-400.000 within a few years.
The stock remains in the country and it triggers enormous ongoing costs: building homes; expanding social services like schooling, training, health care; and integration measures in general. Put differently, there will be 300-400.000 new residents who are entitled to essentially the same social benefits as Austrians, and the social benefits in Austria are generous: roughly 850 EUR per month for the first adult, half of that for the second adult and about 200 EUR per child. A family of four will quickly collect 1.500-2.000 EUR per month. A politician recently published a calculation where, in Vienna, a family of four can make up to 36.000 per year if all special benefits are taken advantage of.
Mind you, these are not income figures for working. They are income figures if not working. And there are many Austrians who do not achieve these income figures despite working which makes for fertile ground for anti-refugee sentiment.
Given Austria's demographic challenge over the next decades, refugees could become a blessing and the answer to that challenge. Provided, of course, that refugees finds jobs, earn income for work and make contributions to the social systems. Regrettably, the statistics are not very promising. In Switzerland, for example, statistics show that up to 80% of refugees are still recipients of social benefits after 5 years in the country. Time will tell how Austria will fare in that regard. Early analyses suggest that, at the most, 25-30% of the arrivals have skills which are in demand. At the same time, Austria presently has the highest unemployment since the end of WW2.
For quite a few months, Chancellor Fayman was 100% loyal to Chancellor Angela Merkel. They both agreed that this was a European problem which could not be solved by any one country alone and that, in consequence, national measures were detrimental to the overall project. Merkel/Faymann preached without end that the stock would have to be Europeanized (a fair distribution throughout Europe) and that the flow would have to be reduced. And they were essentially told by others to go fly a kite, particularly by the East Europeans.
That was when Faymann showed nerves for the first time. Upset by the lack of solidarity from the East, he suggested that those who failed to show solidarity by accepting their fair share of refugees should see a reduction in subsidies they receive from the EU. After all, subsidies are a form of showing solidarity, too. As sensible as this suggestion sounded, Faymann was literally clobbered for making it. Blackmailing one another was not a European value, Faymann was educated. That was a formative experience for Faymann.
Then, major atmospheric changes took place in Germany, Austria and Scandinavia. Sweden, the former showcase for humanitarian policies, reached the end of the line and said they couldn't handle any more refugees. In Germany and Austria, the former 'welcome culture' mutated into a 'farewell culture'. Angela Merkel dared to tell Syrian refugees that when the war was over, they would have to return to Syria. But still, both Germany and Austria were still nobly accepting stock in their countries. And then Faymann blew a fuse.
After Austria broke a taboo by announcing its new policy of limiting the stock for 2016 to 37.500 (after 95.000 in 2015), literally all hell broke loose. Faymann was told by his European colleagues that this was anti-European, anti-humanitarian, anti-everything. Austria should be ashamed of itself. And then Faymann cried out: "Austria, with a population of 8 million, has accepted a stock of 95.000 in 2015. The Austrian ratio of acceptances/total population is arguably higher than that of Germany. Before anyone criticizes us, they should show the same humanitarian effort as Austria has shown so far!"
With that, the genie of diplomatic restraint was out of the bottle and it will be hard to get it back into the bottle. The Austrian government (as represented by a now upset and feeling-offended Chancellor, by a hard-nosed Interior Minister and by a slick young Foreign Minister) is now in defiance, a defiance which is based on demonstrated positive actions and not on beautifully articulated beliefs. The message to others clearly is: "First do as much as we have done and then we can talk!" The message to Greece is: "Don't make so much noise when you have taken in a stock of only 11.000 in 2015 with a total population 3 million greater than ours!"
It's a bit reminiscent of Clint Eastwood's "Go ahead, make my day!", except that Eastwood only had a revolver to impress his opponents whereas Austria has the track record of an accepted stock of well over 100.000 refugees by now. And all of these refugees are extremely well taken care of by Austria.
As unlikely as it appears today, it still cannot be ruled out that the EU, threatened by its demise, will eventually get its act together. Any European solution would undoubtedly have to involve some form of fair burden sharing among all members as regards the stock and some effective policies to control the flow. Who knows? If that miracle were to happen, and it would have to happen within weeks, then perhaps people will look back and conclude that the turning point was when Austria declared its intent 'to provoke a chain reaction of reasonableness'.
Is Werner Faymann an enemy of Greece?
Flashback to June 2015. The Greek debt crisis had reached boiling stage. In the Eurogroup, the ratio was 17 against 1. Greece had become a pariah. And in the midst of all of that, Faymann decided to visit Greece to express solidarity to Alexis Tsipras and the Greek people. Not all his European colleagues thought that this was a good idea. In fact, several of them criticized Faymann for sending out the wrong signal. And yet, Faymann warned that Greece must not be humiliated; that further linear budget cuts made no sense and would only hurt the poor; and that an honest compromise was necessary. From then on, Alexis Tsipras used the phrase "my friend Werner".
Flashback to October 2015. The refugee crisis had become a true "Völkerwanderung". Faymann decided to visit "his friend Alexis" to lend support. Together, they visited the island of Lesbos. "When masses of people are heading North towards the border, they cannot be stopped very easily", Faymann was quoted as saying after visiting a Hotspot under construction.
Around the same time, Faymann started a feud with his Hungarian counterpart Victor Orban. Orban's erecting a border fence was a slap in the face of humanitarian values, Faymann argued. His bussing of refugees from the Croatian to the Austrian border reminded Faymann of the transportation methods of the Nazis.
Four months after that, Austria hosted a Balkan Conference in Vienna. Having just set upper limits for refugees, Austria negotiated an agreement where the flow of refugees would be more of less stopped; at least reduced to very low levels. All countries would help to fortify the Greek/FYROM border so that refugees could no longer cross in an uncontrolled way. Even though it was not the intent of the Balkan Conference, the result clearly is that Greece will turn into a "warehouse for all refugees", to use Alexis Tsipras' words.
Greece was not invited to the Balkan Conference, which certainly is an injury to its interests. When asked why Greece had not been invited, the Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Kurz said that "Greece has not demonstrated any interest to be constructive in the refugee crisis. There have been innumerable meetings and conferences with Greece. Except: Greece was never prepared to even discuss a reduction of the refugee flow. Greece only wanted to discuss how to send refugees as quickly as possible on to the North". That undiplomatic frankness added insult to injury.
One is inclined to think that Austria had a change of government. The previous government had clear humanitarian priorities and defended European values. The new government, installed in the beginning of 2016, made Victor Orban of Hungary look pale. Not only did it announce an upper limit for refugees but, literally overnight, it recreated the spectre of the Habsburg Empire where sly Vienna often was in defiance of arrogant Berlin. Diplomatic niceties were of no importance to the new government. Instead, the Interior Minister opened the Balkan Conference with the words: "Our intent is to provoke. Our intent is to initiate a domino effect. We want to cause a chain reaction of reasonableness".
Except, there was no new government in the beginning of 2016. It was the same government and the same ministers as the year before.
My intent is not to justify the conduct of Austria's government. Instead, my intent is to explain why the government has undergone such a radical change of conduct in the hope that this will be of service to my Greek readers.
I think it is important to differentiate between the flow and the stock of refugees. The flow are the hundreds of thousands of refugees who have crossed European borders in recent years. The stock are those refugees which decide to stay within the borders of one country. The flow incurs one-time costs (temporary infrastructure, transportation, logistics, etc.). The stock incurs permanent costs for generations to come.
Austria, too, has bussed hundreds of thousands of refugees from its Southern borders to the border with Germany and it has earned much anger from Germany for doing that. However, Austria has also built up a stock of 95.000 refugees in the year 2015 alone. Under current laws, these refugees will be entitled to bring along their families and the general expectation is that this will trigger a multiple of 3-4. In other words, 2015's stock of 95.000 will automatically become a stock of 300-400.000 within a few years.
The stock remains in the country and it triggers enormous ongoing costs: building homes; expanding social services like schooling, training, health care; and integration measures in general. Put differently, there will be 300-400.000 new residents who are entitled to essentially the same social benefits as Austrians, and the social benefits in Austria are generous: roughly 850 EUR per month for the first adult, half of that for the second adult and about 200 EUR per child. A family of four will quickly collect 1.500-2.000 EUR per month. A politician recently published a calculation where, in Vienna, a family of four can make up to 36.000 per year if all special benefits are taken advantage of.
Mind you, these are not income figures for working. They are income figures if not working. And there are many Austrians who do not achieve these income figures despite working which makes for fertile ground for anti-refugee sentiment.
Given Austria's demographic challenge over the next decades, refugees could become a blessing and the answer to that challenge. Provided, of course, that refugees finds jobs, earn income for work and make contributions to the social systems. Regrettably, the statistics are not very promising. In Switzerland, for example, statistics show that up to 80% of refugees are still recipients of social benefits after 5 years in the country. Time will tell how Austria will fare in that regard. Early analyses suggest that, at the most, 25-30% of the arrivals have skills which are in demand. At the same time, Austria presently has the highest unemployment since the end of WW2.
For quite a few months, Chancellor Fayman was 100% loyal to Chancellor Angela Merkel. They both agreed that this was a European problem which could not be solved by any one country alone and that, in consequence, national measures were detrimental to the overall project. Merkel/Faymann preached without end that the stock would have to be Europeanized (a fair distribution throughout Europe) and that the flow would have to be reduced. And they were essentially told by others to go fly a kite, particularly by the East Europeans.
That was when Faymann showed nerves for the first time. Upset by the lack of solidarity from the East, he suggested that those who failed to show solidarity by accepting their fair share of refugees should see a reduction in subsidies they receive from the EU. After all, subsidies are a form of showing solidarity, too. As sensible as this suggestion sounded, Faymann was literally clobbered for making it. Blackmailing one another was not a European value, Faymann was educated. That was a formative experience for Faymann.
Then, major atmospheric changes took place in Germany, Austria and Scandinavia. Sweden, the former showcase for humanitarian policies, reached the end of the line and said they couldn't handle any more refugees. In Germany and Austria, the former 'welcome culture' mutated into a 'farewell culture'. Angela Merkel dared to tell Syrian refugees that when the war was over, they would have to return to Syria. But still, both Germany and Austria were still nobly accepting stock in their countries. And then Faymann blew a fuse.
After Austria broke a taboo by announcing its new policy of limiting the stock for 2016 to 37.500 (after 95.000 in 2015), literally all hell broke loose. Faymann was told by his European colleagues that this was anti-European, anti-humanitarian, anti-everything. Austria should be ashamed of itself. And then Faymann cried out: "Austria, with a population of 8 million, has accepted a stock of 95.000 in 2015. The Austrian ratio of acceptances/total population is arguably higher than that of Germany. Before anyone criticizes us, they should show the same humanitarian effort as Austria has shown so far!"
With that, the genie of diplomatic restraint was out of the bottle and it will be hard to get it back into the bottle. The Austrian government (as represented by a now upset and feeling-offended Chancellor, by a hard-nosed Interior Minister and by a slick young Foreign Minister) is now in defiance, a defiance which is based on demonstrated positive actions and not on beautifully articulated beliefs. The message to others clearly is: "First do as much as we have done and then we can talk!" The message to Greece is: "Don't make so much noise when you have taken in a stock of only 11.000 in 2015 with a total population 3 million greater than ours!"
It's a bit reminiscent of Clint Eastwood's "Go ahead, make my day!", except that Eastwood only had a revolver to impress his opponents whereas Austria has the track record of an accepted stock of well over 100.000 refugees by now. And all of these refugees are extremely well taken care of by Austria.
As unlikely as it appears today, it still cannot be ruled out that the EU, threatened by its demise, will eventually get its act together. Any European solution would undoubtedly have to involve some form of fair burden sharing among all members as regards the stock and some effective policies to control the flow. Who knows? If that miracle were to happen, and it would have to happen within weeks, then perhaps people will look back and conclude that the turning point was when Austria declared its intent 'to provoke a chain reaction of reasonableness'.
