tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post379536739083672011..comments2023-07-17T11:55:51.363+02:00Comments on ObservingGreece: Greece's current account balance per July 2012kleinguthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-52106155033938343642012-09-20T15:34:07.277+02:002012-09-20T15:34:07.277+02:00You underline my point that if Greek costs have co...You underline my point that if Greek costs have come down so much and if the Euro has come down against other currencies, this would be the time for Greece to examine possibilities in non-EZ-countries. Heck, relative to such third countries, Greece should have become more competitive by 20-40%; don't you think so?<br /><br />The same goes for reverse exports, that is tourism. For some third countries' tourists, Greece should by now be quite competitive pricewise (and beautywise it has not match, anyway).<br /><br />I don't want to come across totally naive but it would be similarly wrong to resign oneself to the unavoidable fate of going out of business as a country. No country ever goes out of business. The lower it falls, the more of a rebound potential it has. Perhaps you want to read this article.<br /><br />http://www.greekdefaultwatch.com/2012/09/great-expectations-in-greece.htmlkleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-65459347009469882342012-09-20T13:53:10.056+02:002012-09-20T13:53:10.056+02:00The 65% figure is true just like its true that for...The 65% figure is true just like its true that for the EU as a whole 2/3 of its trade come from within the Union.Almost all countries have similar figures.(You can check Eurostat.After all it couldnt be different. that was the purpose of the single market in the 1st place.<br /><br />"65% of Greece's exports are to the EU? I don't know whether this is so but the question to be asked is not where exports have been and are. The question is where they could be and with what products!"<br /><br />Well actually exports to EU have been dropping steadily lately (mainly due to weak demand through out the region).Given the larger part of greek exports that go to EU , a 1% decrease in these exports requires an even larger (over 1% that is) increase in exports to the rest of the world if you want the level of exports to at least remain stable.With that being said i think an 8% increase is not a bad figure at all.Especially when its due to increasing exports to the rest of the world indeed.This figure would obviously be larger if exports to EU remained stable.But this doesnt depend in Greece only to happen.You cant sell when there is not enough demand.<br /><br />As for cutting down costs,2 days ago i saw a report on SKAI TV showing that unit labor costs are now lower than even in Germany.The problem is,the transmission mechanism from lower costs to lower prices has not really taken place yet.But that was expected pretty much.IMF itself acknowledged that currency devaluation is more effective and responsive than internal devaluation and they admitted that in other cases of internal devaluation there was also a lag between lower costs and price adjustment.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Crossovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-54181910498544100892012-09-19T23:19:24.748+02:002012-09-19T23:19:24.748+02:00Notwithstanding your points (1)-(3), which are cor...Notwithstanding your points (1)-(3), which are correct, I strongly disagree with you. <br /><br />Greece has a tremendous import culture (and lobby!) and a very insufficient export culture (and lobby). <br /><br />I am not arguing that Greece should pull miracles and invent new products which it can export. That will take time.<br /><br />I am just arguing the basics. It escapes my imagination why supermarkets in Germany and Austria would be full of agricultural products from all sorts of countries but when you want to buy Greek agricultural products, you have to find a specialist boutique which then is very expensive. When in Greece (almost half the year), I literally could live on those excellent salads alone. Why should I not be able to buy those ingredients 1.500 Km to the North?<br /><br />Exporting is like "selling" throughout the world. You don't wait for customers to come along to ask whether they can buy from you. You make up your mind what products you have that you ought to be able to find a customer for and then you make an all-out effort to get those customers. <br /><br />Some individuals (or individual companies) seem to know what selling is all about. I recently read that the export of Greek feta cheese to the US increased by 90% (don't know what period). But, if the Euro devalues against third currencies by about 20% and if costs in Greece come down by about 10-20%, and you still don't make a special effort to go after non-EZ-markets in a hurry, then you are not "selling". <br /><br />65% of Greece's exports are to the EU? I don't know whether this is so but the question to be asked is not where exports have been and are. The question is where they could be and with what products!<br /><br />Obviously, it is easier to sell olive oil in bulk to Italy and let Italy rebrand and market to other countries. That way, Greece gets the low price and the higher margins are left elsewhere. Is that intelligent? No! Is that lazy? Perhaps. Whatever it is, it needs to be changed!<br /><br />Last but not least, when it turns out that Greece is importing agricultural products in large amounts which it should be exporting (and, as regards olive oil, allegedly importing some of the oil which it had exported before), then I come to the conclusion that Greece has a lot of untapped potential.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-37925870248698804822012-09-19T22:05:18.304+02:002012-09-19T22:05:18.304+02:00"Exports in 2012 were only 8% higher than in ..."Exports in 2012 were only 8% higher than in 2008. When considering that Greece must have become quite a bit more competitive since then and particularly when considering that the Euro now trades significantly lower than in 2008, one would have expected a more significant increase in exports."<br /><br />65% of Greek trade is with the EU.(1)<br />Global growth is under 3% (2)<br />EU growth rate for 2012 will be 0% according to eurostat (3)<br /><br />You cant possibly expect better export results given (1) (2) and (3) facts.<br />Especially (1) and (3) affect the export results no matter what is the price of the euro.<br />Furthermore exports to the EU not only didnt remain stable but declined,which means the rise in exports was thanks to increase in exports to the rest of the world inspite the weak demand as implied by the weak growth (2).Crossovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-57823879268735087562012-09-18T22:43:27.937+02:002012-09-18T22:43:27.937+02:00Thank God you are not an economist:-)
Peter LazosThank God you are not an economist:-)<br />Peter LazosAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com