tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post8584373045672815850..comments2023-07-17T11:55:51.363+02:00Comments on ObservingGreece: EU - still trying to be just a little pregnant?kleinguthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-90859259763930715212012-11-28T21:50:34.048+01:002012-11-28T21:50:34.048+01:00My return mail to you was 'rejected by the rec...My return mail to you was 'rejected by the recipient domain'. What now, expert?kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-51338360388339769432012-11-28T10:20:25.400+01:002012-11-28T10:20:25.400+01:00Inspired by your wonderful words about Europe'...Inspired by your wonderful words about Europe's pregnancy I would like to bring in another view: Europe is not pregnant, Europe is in development as a child, with the diseases which belong to growth and with the learning how to walk. <br /><br />At the same time Europe is there as a family of children with several ages and as usual the teenagers know it the best, thinking that they are much more wise, complain the most, fight against rules and asking for money all the time because all the time they are broke.<br />They manipulate and know the weak spots of their parents, and other brothers and sisters. Pretending that they suffer. Drama, if they do not get what they want.<br /><br />A lot of young people get lost in life because of weak parents: I do not talk about small problems, I speak about young people who "meet" drugs, alcohol, sex, criminality. It takes more to raise up children, to guide them and protect them in the right way, to teach them, than to give them what they ask.<br /><br />Greece has proved to be in the same age as teenagers are. <br />Europe has proved to be a very very bad "parent". Weak. <br /><br />I agree completely, fully, totally, with all my brainwork and heart-thinking, with your words, Herr Kastner:<br />"From the beginning of this blog, I have made these two arguments: (a) Greece is entirely responsible for the mess which it got itself in until about 2009/10; and (b) the EU is entirely responsible for the mess by which they have turned the Greek mess into a European mess. For over two years now, both sides seem to have been competing with each other as to who can make the mess worse: the EU by pursuing a policy of denial, and Greece by dancing around Troika-measures."<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> Antoinette Janssenhttp://nl.linkedin.com/in/antoinettejanssennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-1680253307499806402012-11-28T01:44:53.291+01:002012-11-28T01:44:53.291+01:00Hedge Funds who bought at 20 will sell at 35 - hec...Hedge Funds who bought at 20 will sell at 35 - heck who wouldn't. <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_27/11/2012_471880" rel="nofollow">Greek Bonds turned into Gold</a> - I guess that's the Midas Touch.<br /><br />What politician ever said "we'll give it a try and see what happens" - I can't think of any, they couldn't survive the ridicule. I recall a FinMin saying "this is the recession we had to have". He's never lived it down, despite of the fact that his country is the only OECD member not to have had a another recession since he said it more than 20 years ago.<br /><br />Kicking the can is all we can expect from the EU. Its a multi-lateral <b><i>political</i></b> institution of 27 states, which hold 'contestable' elections. That's all you're ever going to get, muddle through and kick the can. Mitterand is rumoured to have said of the EMU :-<br /><br />"<i>...yoking Germany to the rest of Europe in this way is sure to lead to imbalances, and the imbalances are certain to lead to some crisis, but by the time the crisis strikes I'll be dead and gone — and others will have to sort it out.</i>" <br /><br />What more initiative should the **EU** take regarding growth. Other than lending more money, to be paid over more time, with no requirement for structural reform - i.e. back to Friedman's quasi petro-state. <br /><br />There were Billions of unspent Structural Funds (I assume they are no longer available), the EIB has made Billions available to Greek Banks to lend to SME's and the self employed - very little of which has been borrowed. The EIB also lends money to Greek private industry if they have a decent proposal.<br /><br />Maybe EU national governments could direct their agencies to Buy Greek First, maybe the EU could issue Directive to enforce it. Maybe Germany could give incentives to its medium size businesses to relocate to Thessaly. Maybe the EU could move the Commission to... Mykonos. None of which, or anything like them is going to happen.<br /><br />Growth initiatives must come from within Greece, when the EU blocks or doesn't offer reasonable support to reasonable initiatives then we should start complaining. But its unreasonable to expect the EU to actually be Greece. I have a picture in my mind of an army of EU bureaucrats scouring the Greek landscape looking for Solyndra like things into which to invest EU taxpayers money.<br /><br />CKCanutely Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07318977471631386327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-83443512569295408632012-11-27T23:24:11.336+01:002012-11-27T23:24:11.336+01:00One more thing: why it hasn't been applied ear...One more thing: why it hasn't been applied earlier? Well, someone needs to finance a debt buy-back and in the past no one could be found to finance it. Remember: if Greece borrows 10 BEUR to buy back 40 BEUR from private creditors, Greece's debt goes down from 40 BEUR to 10 BEUR. However, the 10 BEUR is a NEW loan from official lenderskleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-25980132732963569282012-11-27T23:20:13.352+01:002012-11-27T23:20:13.352+01:00There is nothing immoral or otherwise with a debt ...There is nothing immoral or otherwise with a debt buy-back. Companies buy back their debt often (just like they buy back their shares when they think the value is low).<br /><br />A debt buy-back for a country can make eminent sense (Greece could be a case), provided it's all voluntary. In other words: Greece offers to buy back at 30 cents on the Euro; those who wish to sell will do so; the others won't. Some parties might even be thankful to Greece for that (because they might not be able to unload their paper to anyone else in large amounts).<br /><br />The trading volume in Greek bonds is not high. Thus, the 25% or so market value today does not necessarily represent at which price large volumes would go over the table. That's why I am saying that the 30% might work, or not.<br /><br />I object to making/calling such a chancy thing a 'major pillar of the deal'. It may become a major pillar, or it may not. In my opinion, it should have been called 'we'll give it a try and see what happens'. One has to avoid that its possible failure becomes another crisis point.<br /><br />What would really be questionable is if authorities 'leaned' on private creditors to accept the deal. The private creditors have already taken a huge hit (much larger than in any other country before). To again lean on them would be rather silly, in my opinion.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-25249895352980475452012-11-27T22:59:59.794+01:002012-11-27T22:59:59.794+01:00I have a couple of related questions:
a) Is debt b...I have a couple of related questions:<br />a) Is debt buyback a complete no-no in cases of sovereign debt?<br />If yes then why? I can see a moral risk (borrow the money, engineer a crisis, buy debt at 50c to the dollar, which countries can do much easier than companies)but is there some other reason? <br />If the answer is no, ie debt buyback is common, then any ideas why it was not applied to the Greek case earlier?theAthensdognoreply@blogger.com