tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post8519959494124478850..comments2023-07-17T11:55:51.363+02:00Comments on ObservingGreece: How Greece Could Live Within Its Means Despite Defaultkleinguthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-73473815091078030532015-07-11T14:10:16.674+02:002015-07-11T14:10:16.674+02:00Maybe this explains why
http://www.grreporter.info...Maybe this explains why<br />http://www.grreporter.info/en/psychological_portrait_yanis_varoufakis/12965Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-16458206697932489002015-07-10T22:52:38.601+02:002015-07-10T22:52:38.601+02:00As I just wrote in a new post, I am quite amazed. ...As I just wrote in a new post, I am quite amazed. Alexis Tsipras has the chance of gaining my respect, after all. Of course, this may all be playing games but I do get the impression that Tsipras is a bit of a different person from the one a week ago. Could it be that he expected, or even hoped, to be beaten by the "yes" and when he saw the result and all the frenzy, he became worried about his own courage?<br /><br />A Greek journalist tweetet today: "Tsipras is defeated. Humiliating him now would be wrong. The Greek people would consider that their own humiliation and a betrayal by Europe!" I couldn't agree more! <br /><br />Someone else raised asked: "How would creditors handle the prospect of Tsipras bring bailed now, only to prepare for and attempt Grexit in a few months time?" My response to that: if that were well planned and professionally and effectively executed, why not?kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-30283326886031463312015-07-10T18:25:28.636+02:002015-07-10T18:25:28.636+02:00It seems there are rumours that prof. Varoufakis w...It seems there are rumours that prof. Varoufakis will still vote through letter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-46780161677144266362015-07-10T18:24:10.516+02:002015-07-10T18:24:10.516+02:00Prof. Varoufakis, will NOT be in the parliament to...Prof. Varoufakis, will NOT be in the parliament tonight for the vote. Citing "family reasons" he has embarked to a ship towards Aegina island, off the coast of Athens.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-77576536569181079032015-07-10T14:18:43.759+02:002015-07-10T14:18:43.759+02:00Mr. Kastner,
Your next post or following coming u...Mr. Kastner,<br /><br />Your next post or following coming up posts. Please post the final agreement as i have read the draft and would like to comment on it. It will also shed light to many commenters of the deal with greece.<br /><br />What kind of debt deal do you expect from the eu side? I assume from what i am hearing it is along you lines suggested.<br /><br />Sincerely,<br />VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-63397003370228755372015-07-10T14:14:20.085+02:002015-07-10T14:14:20.085+02:00@ V
While I can admire your optimism I find it unf...@ V<br />While I can admire your optimism I find it unfounded for the nation. As for running before you can walk, I see it as falling into the usual trap Greece create for itself. It's all about "short cuts, jump starting and leap frogging", never about long, planned, tedious work. The result is usually that when you find out that the short cut is a dead end, you return to square one and complain that others blocked your way, until the next promising short cut present itself. It's an endless butting the head against the wall with bouts of "what can one do" in between. Too much energy is wasted on achieving things effortless.<br />There never seems to be time to do things right, but always time to do them again.<br />Lennard Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-18489732691147384262015-07-10T13:36:10.972+02:002015-07-10T13:36:10.972+02:00SYRIZA MP Mitropoulos (former PASOK): "We fai...SYRIZA MP Mitropoulos (former PASOK): "We failed, we lost, we are risk becoming a left parody. We are being transformed to a neoliberal party, asked to implement, the most asphyxiating, antisocial program. We must avoid Grexit, because we are incapable of managing it and we can't bring more harm to the people".<br /><br />http://www.protothema.gr/politics/article/491971/mitropoulos-apotuhame-hasame-kinduneuoume-na-metatrapoume-se-aristeri-parodia/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-39917309761044455552015-07-10T00:53:17.432+02:002015-07-10T00:53:17.432+02:00The Greeks don't have any difficulties plannin...The Greeks don't have any difficulties planning. When the McKinsey Greece 10 years ahead report was published in 2011, I found some prior reports produced by Greeks in Greece that advocated the same ideas - indeed I would guess the McK used those reports in preparing their own. <br /><br />The one on PPP was written by someone in the Finance Ministry. AFAIK, it was never implemented; another was produced by an exec in the Pharma sector. My memory is that both were written before the Lehmann Event<br /><br />Greece's other main problem is the clientelist political culture – which was the main point of Verhofstadt’s rant.<br /><br />If you look at the overall tax take from GDP over the past 70 years across advanced economies, you'll see it doesn't change much in any one country. The sources change e.g. from income to consumption but the overall take is pretty flat. For Greece its ~30%, for France it's ~45%, for Estonia it's ~32%. It seems to me that the Greek's want a big state like France has, with a tax take that's less than Estonia's which I'm told runs a small and efficient state sector (lots of IT). <br /><br />I stumbled on this a few days ago, <a href="http://www.the-american-interest.com/2012/05/08/the-two-europes/" rel="nofollow">The Two Europes - The American Interest</a><br /><br />It’s from Francis Fukuyama, written in 2012. If I was as smart as the author I could have written the article, it sums up what I've been thinking since 2010/11 . So what’s changed since 2012, some might say SFA. Except that Mr Draghi has carved out a <i>firebreak</i> around the rest of the EZ. And Syriza has won an election.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-76958422096817146502015-07-09T23:01:04.112+02:002015-07-09T23:01:04.112+02:00To be honest, Occam's Razor suggests to me tha...To be honest, Occam's Razor suggests to me that the entire saga of the last 5 months is best explained by Syriza's unpreparedness to actually govern. I very much doubt that they had a real plan behind this; rather it was extreme difficulties in making the jump from therapy group (this was discussed in an earlier blog post) to governing party. It certainly doesn't help that politics, in general, is pretty cutthroat, and that you get steamrollered if you don't have appropriate mentors and don't have experience in what you are doing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-40828229480955584262015-07-09T20:30:53.683+02:002015-07-09T20:30:53.683+02:00Yes, You are probably right on the bank issue, but...Yes, You are probably right on the bank issue, but i must assume that it is more to their inexperience to be able to negotiate wile not killing the running everyday economy.<br /><br />If the deal gets signed i expect elections if there are many no syriza votes, but i doubt. Even the extreme left in Syriza will vote yes to the deal backing Tsipras. <br /><br />Today i swallowed a huge pill and sat and watched and read all of Lapavitsas statements and interviews. Yes grexit under the supervision of Mr. Kastner maybe would be worth while, but this guy was out there. How this guy was elected is beyond me. I could run a Grexit betterthan him. But i had to watch him as to gain a realistic opinion on his rhetoric.<br /><br />Sincerely,<br />VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-9211020931951759882015-07-09T19:46:20.198+02:002015-07-09T19:46:20.198+02:00@V:
For a long time I had advocated kind of a Gree...@V:<br />For a long time I had advocated kind of a Greek Lech Walensa to remedy what you correctly list as problems 1-5.<br /><br />However, after what Tsipras has achieved in the past months makes me think that can not achieve this, especially because he got an important part of supporters by embellishment of a sad reality.<br /><br />I wonder why you do not recall that for long periods of time Tsipras had favored Grexit and only said the contrary when he realized that on that route he could not win the election.<br /><br />All his actions make full sense when you assume that he desired Grexit but publicly pretended the opposite.<br /><br />Imho Merkel also would prefer it, but the one who dares to say it aloud will have lost the blame game...<br /><br />H. Trickler<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-71311238144491839702015-07-09T17:07:08.601+02:002015-07-09T17:07:08.601+02:00This is interesting. I hope you are right. However...This is interesting. I hope you are right. However, if this all was intentional: given the enormous amount of damage that was done to the economy and people in the intervening five month, I am hard-pressed to agree that it is worth this price.<br /><br />If capital controls have been a means to the end of combating VAT evasion, surely, the government could have figured out a way to impose them back in February, instead of running down ELA? This would have come at much lower cost, the economy would have been in much better shape to absorb the shock, and I even seem to remember that Klaus suggested a form of capital controls a few years ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-46954250735567561062015-07-09T16:49:20.583+02:002015-07-09T16:49:20.583+02:00Hi Roger,
The first step is an agreement. 2nd is...Hi Roger,<br /><br />The first step is an agreement. 2nd is plan but babysitted in a way Mr. Kastner has stated. Greek plan of action committe with the help fo eu. 3rd is a set time table for debt discussions.<br />Listen, we need to get the private sector unstuck. We were all on a good roll. I personally have over 30-40 projects projected into 2018 on hold. If the banks unfreeze, at least for the businesses we can keep the mometum going. I also have an awesome efficiency project on the "drawing table" but it makes no sense unless this new crisis is resolved.<br /><br />Personally, i would leave capital controls for an extended period of time for individuals. I am laughing my ass off. I just read that the government cache has now 1,4 billion just from the 1st installment of taxes. People are scared of a haircut so they are unloading loads of cash anywhere, even pay taxes. People are also buying tons of valuable products to reduce any kind of haircut. So funny how i made my 1st installment of tax returns 1st of the month by my general goodness. Everyone else did to unload their accounts. (I was a duck in chicken pen in the USA and i am duck in a goose pen in Greece)<br /><br />We may have solved the economical hoarding created in the greek crisis by mistake. Everyone is buying stuff and paying bills!!!!<br /><br />Have Good Afternoon,<br /><br />V<br /><br />PS: I also see Mrs. Merkel will have her hands full with her parliment to give Greece another load. She is really righteous and we owe to her for supporting us so faithfully. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-46048638642561700762015-07-09T16:02:20.335+02:002015-07-09T16:02:20.335+02:00@ Lennard,
Always with a very nice, short and smar...@ Lennard,<br />Always with a very nice, short and smart posts. Yes you are right on the most part but inside most greeks there is the realization of where that start point is. They just need to accept it. Start point is indeed in many aspects at 0. Even some at -50, but there are aspects which are ahead. If the majority of society is ready to move foward the shit will simply be left behind. <br /><br />I would like to see some baby steps. Few steps here and there. The many steps and it is very possible to skip walking and go to run!. It is how i work.<br /><br />Sincrely,<br />VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-29366329982697411862015-07-09T15:57:10.786+02:002015-07-09T15:57:10.786+02:00Mr. Kastner,
You have the luxury of being outside...Mr. Kastner,<br /><br />You have the luxury of being outside of the fishbowl You know us and observe us. When you are inside of the fish bowl things look blurry.<br /><br />Everyone is entitled to his views and it must be like that if we are to grow as humanity as a whole. But when you are looking through the blurry fish glass sometimes the stubborness does not allow you to see the growth.<br /><br />It was something similar to what I commenting to roger a few articles back. Greeks need to wake up and look into the mirror to reveal who they are. That is the most important. You know the greek saying i am sure, "don't remove your tail outside." Now is the time for all Greeks.<br /><br />We must find the best in everything. I have even with my corrupt governments. You have also greatly contributed to me. (I hope to learn more from you.) Many people have awaken and many greeks are changed. We must now not sulk in the misery otherwise nobody needs to fail us as we will have failed ourselves. And enough with the finger pointing. Do whats right and you shall succeed.<br /><br />Sincerely,<br />VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-91807858377422936632015-07-09T15:45:05.543+02:002015-07-09T15:45:05.543+02:00Well, not everyone shares your opinion. Below is t...Well, not everyone shares your opinion. Below is the comment on it by Dimitris Palaskas (and my response to him). I know Dimitri well. He is a younger man of high integrity and character. Also a very good dentist. And yet, he has become rather fanatic.<br /><br />Dimitris Palaskas: I saw his theatrical speech. What a disappointment for every European who believes in democracy. What a relief for every CEO (banks included).<br /><br />Klaus Kastner: Well, you either mean well for the future of your country or your ideology (unless you can bring your ideology in line with what's good for your county's future).kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-76122688656746065002015-07-09T13:59:50.526+02:002015-07-09T13:59:50.526+02:00I think because prof. Varoufakis had to obey to th...I think because prof. Varoufakis had to obey to the goverment's lines. I remember in February when he came back, where he replied "i signed an agreement with the EU, because i had goverment mandate to return with an agreement". This would imply, that it wasn't his own plan. When prof. Varoufakis took office, he had said "that we should prepare for austere life". I think professor Varoufakis would have preferred to test his own theory by defaulting already in March. But Tsipras didn't want to. Tsipras, if you have observed, has also done something very clever. He didn't take any unpopular measure all these months. Nothing. They kept saying they would keep their red lines. Why? So that they keep the people with them. Because they knew that either way, they would need public support either for memorandum or for drachma. And when you tell the truth early on, you lose public support. Better keep the people with you with lies for as long as you can and present the truth only at the last minute. Tsipras played well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-58069900322643712602015-07-09T13:04:35.999+02:002015-07-09T13:04:35.999+02:00Dear V,
thank you very much for your long and exp...Dear V,<br /><br />thank you very much for your long and explaining posting!<br />I have doubts in Tsipras but I really really hope you are right and I am wrong!<br /><br />Best wishes,<br />RogerRogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-79762336016152741412015-07-09T12:48:56.519+02:002015-07-09T12:48:56.519+02:00To Add,
Guy's speech was really amazing. Thi...To Add,<br /><br />Guy's speech was really amazing. This is the healthy politicians i love. <br /><br />Sincerely,<br />VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-85240983256613767822015-07-09T12:38:30.103+02:002015-07-09T12:38:30.103+02:00@ V
You can say to the people who have suffered fo...@ V<br />You can say to the people who have suffered for 5 years that they will have to suffer for 5 years more because it is the truth. If you are at Mani and want to go to Athens you can not plan your journey as if you started in Corinthos. If you want to build a skyscraper you can not start at the fifth floor and pretend to have a foundation. Know thyself also mean know where you are. Yes it is hard, and require a sense of realism I often miss in Greece.<br />LennardAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-46755377753877400042015-07-09T12:37:47.639+02:002015-07-09T12:37:47.639+02:00My Apologizies Mr. Kastner.
VMy Apologizies Mr. Kastner.<br />VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-19087375489655791492015-07-09T12:17:03.915+02:002015-07-09T12:17:03.915+02:00Lots of thoughts about that, and not recent ones e...Lots of thoughts about that, and not recent ones either. Seeing that the government employees are better off than most others there is no reason not to take the whole nation into that program. ELSTAT yesterday published their figures for income distribution, as usual they are dismal. The 4 quartiles were 9 : 17.6 : 25.8 : 47.6. And no, The 9 was not the highest income quartile but the lowest. And don't believe the highest quartile is lifted up by the superrich, they don't report any income at all. These 100% could also be distributed as 21 : 23 : 26 : 30, like you do in developed countries. That way the government would lower their wage and social costs, without reducing the money flow in the real economy. It would have the added benefit that the government would not be humiliated by having to beg money from countries with better income distribution. Would that be socialism? Well if it is Greece would be in good company. Many countries in EZ have much better GINI coefficient than Greece's bleak 34.5. At random, France 30, Germany 27, Austria 26.3, Finland 26.8, Holland a whopping 25.1 not nations I call socialist ones. Syriza! It becomes harder and harder to hide behind your socialist facade, you are as populist and statist as the previous governments.<br />Figures courtesy of ELSTAT and CIA World Facts.<br />Lennard Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-18182970551797768292015-07-09T11:54:15.351+02:002015-07-09T11:54:15.351+02:00That last comment was not made by a German Eurorca...That last comment was not made by a German Eurorcat. Instead, it was Guy Verhofstadt, former PM of Belgium, in his response to Tsipras' speech in the European Parliament.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=P84tN0z4jqMkleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-65561483677748964172015-07-09T11:51:07.826+02:002015-07-09T11:51:07.826+02:00Correct. I first read about it in his blog in June...Correct. I first read about it in his blog in June 2011. I still remembered it to this day because it had struck me as an outstanding idea at the time (the part about the waterfall; can't judge the part about military expenses). Varoufakis indeed had a lot of good ideas. Why on earth he implemented none of them after becoming Finance Minister beats my imagination.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-120229545102476232015-07-09T11:24:46.040+02:002015-07-09T11:24:46.040+02:00....conitnued V....
Change is coming. Maybe some.......conitnued V....<br /><br />Change is coming. Maybe some pain with this new agreement but I finally believe we will have some chance of succeeding without further wasted money from our European brothers and sisters. And by the way, Tsipras may disagree on some points on the new agreement but what is the main issue he wants in the agreement is an obligation or fine print to our creditors, that the debt issue will be addressed.<br />Tsipras will sign. He does not have bad intensions. If he does I will shoot him myself. But I think the above logic leads to the conclusion to a better, fairer and prosperous Greece. If things do come as the above, that is when you Mr. Kastner can help in the tactical issues, if you ever deice to go in.<br />BTW, even with the largest agreement “austerity deal” to come, Tsipras will call elections. Staying in the euro and making an agreement, he will win 50-60% of the vote without question. With such power, change will be possible.<br />Also other key aspects which also confirm my theory that he will sign and put change forward, is that KKE completely disagrees with him. If Tsipras wanted to break ties with Europe they would be close to him. <br />When you hear Greek news now I am 2nd guessing everything now. Since my awakening, when I hear ND and PASOK old rhetoric of some oligarch media outputs trying to find scandals or propaganda, to reduce the power of this new government, what comes to mind the old clientistic oligarch system, as withering fish out of the water caught by a fisherman? That which you hear is the last breathes of that fish which is about to die. If Tsipras succeeds, we will all see a new Greece tomorrow. The USA and Russia have both played key roles in this theatre. The only way Greece will leave the Euro is if either Russia or the USA directly funds Greece and that won’t happen.<br />A German eurocrat spoke yesterday publically to Mr. Tsipras. “You will be remembered as the man who impoverished his people or become a true leader and help your people to a better future, as the great Greek Leaders of the past.” I put all bets on Great Greek Leaders of the Past. Tsipras is not stupid nor lucky.<br />Sincerely, <br />VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com