tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post5461227121839864719..comments2023-07-17T11:55:51.363+02:00Comments on ObservingGreece: Perhaps The Fiscal Situation Is Not So Tight, After All!kleinguthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-5002128999481640542015-05-27T08:42:31.259+02:002015-05-27T08:42:31.259+02:00Are you right/wrong? Who knows? Just yesterday I r...Are you right/wrong? Who knows? Just yesterday I read an article (I believe it was in the Ekathimerini) which took the reported primary surplus of 2,1 BEUR until April totally apart and came to the conclusion that, when all proper adjustments were made, it was actually a primary deficit of 1,5 BEUR. So someone is agreeing with you. I would only say this: if SYRIZA manages to convert a minus 1,5 into a plus of 2,1 for only 4 months, then SYRIZA is even more creative than its predecessor governments have been.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-70782616800046839212015-05-26T20:54:10.035+02:002015-05-26T20:54:10.035+02:00I post twice the 1, but am i generally wrong?
MSI post twice the 1, but am i generally wrong?<br /><br />MSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-20423392803164277582015-05-26T16:21:04.829+02:002015-05-26T16:21:04.829+02:00The budget execution (April 2015) is not realistic...The budget execution (April 2015) is not realistic.<br /><br />1) Arrears target rescheduled, from 2.5 bn to 1.5 bn in 2015. It's not sure if the 1.5bn target will partly achieved. In 2014 arrears target acc to programme, were 2 bn. 1.152 mil were given.<br />The state budget financing needs are 528 mil <br /><br />Important? BoG central gov net borrowing:<br /><br />http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BoGAttachments/15.05.2015%20Central%20government%20net%20borrowing%20requirement%20on%20a%20cash%20basis%20-%20April%202015%20Table.pdf<br /><br />The budget execution (April 2015) is not realistic.<br /><br />1) Arrears target rescheduled, from 2.5 bn to 1.5 bn in 2015. It's not sure if the 1.5bn target will partly achieved. In 2014 arrears target acc to programme, were 2 bn. 1.152 mil were given.Arrears when paid at the end of the year are expenditures. If less paid -less added. Right? <br />The state budget financing needs are 528 mil <br /><br />Important? BoG central gov net borrowing:<br /><br />http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BoGAttachments/15.05.2015%20Central%20government%20net%20borrowing%20requirement%20on%20a%20cash%20basis%20-%20April%202015%20Table.pdf<br /><br />There is a difference.<br /><br />2) Expenditures y to y are almost a 1 bn less.<br /><br />3) Government uses all cash from institutions, like munincipalities, pension funds,public companies to make repos and get a better financing, as a intragovernmental loan, which is not bad.However there is an issue for deposits level.<br /><br />4) http://www.pdma.gr/attachments/article/37/Bulletin_No77.pdf<br /><br />Here the cash in 31.12.2014 2.6 bn. But 31.03.2015 800 mln. Today?<br /><br />5) The good: 380 mil came from debt repayments in 100 installments. Estimation for the year, more than 500 mil.<br />There is however the need to cover the cost of the non reduction of supplementary pensions which is 1 bn. So again -500.<br /><br />6)As probably seen in BoG document above, the "Change in State accounts with the Bank of Greece" is -721 mln. Should be found?<br /><br />My sense is that the surplus is a deficit more than 1.5% of GDP.<br />And still we haven't seen all the cash government handle.<br />This is not a tidily budget. <br />OK, due to negotiations but the overall effort is again 3% adjustment from a worse position.<br /><br /><br />MSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-35337310831144066742015-05-22T09:07:26.794+02:002015-05-22T09:07:26.794+02:00You can't say that Syriza did not achieve anyt...You can't say that Syriza did not achieve anything. After all the Troika is now called the Brussel Group and Tsipras is allowed to discuss political solutions with Merkel.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-71082203715163286802015-05-20T16:06:31.727+02:002015-05-20T16:06:31.727+02:00With this FM, I really think I'm going to forg...With this FM, I really think I'm going to forget my basic economics and international trade/negotiations knowledge, so let's better skip this part :-)<br />Truth is that even from a pre-debt perspective, I doubt whether any Greek Govt which is addicted to piling up debt, no restructuring, no real structural reform, could eventually keep up with a surplus.<br />This, is a long going discussion here in Greece - even if they write our ebt off completely, how far can we go on this Zastava??? <br />Thx for your prompt reply anyway...dadoudishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06466394803743088470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-2423466440335977292015-05-20T15:09:17.359+02:002015-05-20T15:09:17.359+02:00You are absolutely right: the chain reaction of th...You are absolutely right: the chain reaction of the government's not paying its domestic bills can be - and ultimately will be - destructive. But that was not my point.<br /><br />I looked at it from a pre-debt service perspective. My point was that, from a pre-debt service perspective, the government could have paid its domestic bills; it could even have reduced arrears instead of building them up.<br /><br />If Greece had, on February 20, signed on the dotted line, it would have received 7,2 BEUR and none of the trouble would have happened. But Greece was cocky at the time. The FinMin even bragged "I don't want those 7,2 BEUR!" Signing on the dotted line would have broken just about every campaign promise but it would have put the government in a perfect situation to negotiate a good long-term deal by June 30. They didn't understand that what matters is the final result (as opposed to some intermediate results). kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-28449407536393127552015-05-20T11:48:52.644+02:002015-05-20T11:48:52.644+02:00Although you last sentence conveys a valid point, ...Although you last sentence conveys a valid point, there is a miss: increase in arrears means stretching out payments to private sector suppliers, which will in turn will not be able to pay wages on time, and service taxation purposes. This practice on the government side can be considered as standard in the past too,when liquidity was an issue, but its leeway is short.dadoudishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06466394803743088470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-50740672837256155542015-05-19T22:42:46.544+02:002015-05-19T22:42:46.544+02:00You either didn't understand the BBC article o...You either didn't understand the BBC article or my article, or both.<br /><br />There is a difference between liquidity and operational surplus. There was an operational surplus (before debt service) but the enormous debt service caused the illiquidity. Greece has defaulted on domestic obligations so that it could reduce the debt in the absence of obtaining new financing.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-86980219615220586692015-05-19T21:09:41.037+02:002015-05-19T21:09:41.037+02:00Pure nonsense !
Internal default about 2 billion e...Pure nonsense !<br />Internal default about 2 billion euros<br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32580919Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-21026458418409848072015-05-19T20:16:55.760+02:002015-05-19T20:16:55.760+02:00Needless to say, that this situation is the result...Needless to say, that this situation is the result of the evil policy taken by Samaras and Tsipras didn't change (as he had promiced).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-40012919262343241382015-05-19T19:20:08.108+02:002015-05-19T19:20:08.108+02:00The end of the post is like the last chapter of a ...The end of the post is like the last chapter of a detective in which that is unfolded what one was thinking during the entire book (in this case the post). Feels like a wonderful grandioso in a classical music composition.<br /><br />Mahler. He could have composed a great Greek Symphony, with choir. and this final end, based on this post.<br /><br />Such a relief to read what I wanted to read.<br />I was doubting really about your intelligence, for the first time, in your Observing Greece.<br />Antoinettehttp://multerland.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-86458927469202339132015-05-19T19:05:23.843+02:002015-05-19T19:05:23.843+02:00That is also my understanding: that the real probl...That is also my understanding: that the real problem is debt servicing, and the Greek state is otherwise financeable for the time being. That does not alter the fact that the eurozone is determined to make Greece pay the remainder of its debts -- even if that destroys any chance of economic recovery and future viability of the economy. One is reminded of Shylock's insistence on his pound of flesh: this time, the villain is not a Jew but a German.Guest(xenos)http://www.mmo.grnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-50403071608574681252015-05-19T19:00:57.257+02:002015-05-19T19:00:57.257+02:00And Bloomberg thinks Greece has enough money for m...And Bloomberg thinks Greece has enough money for maybe two months ahead:<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-19/greece-cash-can-last-through-juneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com