tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post2499057565822723995..comments2023-07-17T11:55:51.363+02:00Comments on ObservingGreece: A Manifesto For A New Greek Political Governancekleinguthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-70077089699537425232019-01-02T19:04:21.292+01:002019-01-02T19:04:21.292+01:00There is a reason why the Bank of Greece always us...There is a reason why the Bank of Greece always uses the sub-category "exports/imports or trade balance 'excluding oil and shipping'". Obviously, oil and shipping distort the picture. <br /><br />For the period Jan-Oct, the trade deficit "excluding oil and shipping" was 13,4 BEUR in 2017 and increased to 14,5 BEUR in 2018, a 9% increase which is quite a bit. Imports actually increased by 10% but exports increased by even 12% (albeit on a much smaller base).<br /><br />Regarding the accounting for the ships. If a ship is purchased by a Greek resident (private or corporate) and paid for out of Greece, it is an import in the Balance of Payments. If it is purchased and paid for by, say, the UK subsidiary of a Greek company and then sent to Greece for use there, it is either a foreign investment or a loan in kind, not an import. <br /><br />If the imported ship remains owned by a Greek resident, only with a Panamanian flag, there is no re-export. If a Panamanian flag means that ownership of the ship is transferred to Panama, then it is an export. I don't know why someone would first import a ship to Greece only to export it again to Panama. My guess is that the ships which are truly imported to Greece stay in Greece for use there.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-19241374799304369492019-01-02T15:21:03.405+01:002019-01-02T15:21:03.405+01:00Agreed. Of course these are 2017 numbers and in 20...Agreed. Of course these are 2017 numbers and in 2018 we have both higher import and export numbers.<br /><br />As far as ships are concerned, I remember in early 2017 that there have been deliveries of ships built in Korea as one off. The trade with Korea in 2018 looks entirely different. The part I am not clear about is this: when a foreign built ship gets delivered, Greece is charged a trade deficit but then the ship owner changes the flag and is now let's say a Liberian ship. So, I am not sure how Greece recoups the deficit created by such an import since the ship during its useful life operates under a non-Greek flag.<br /><br /><br />Yesterday, we had a delivery for the first time of Texas LNG (out of Corpus Christi) to Revithousa (a small islet off the coast of Athens) w/ a storage capacity of natural gas for the Greek distribution network. So, the ship which delivered it is a new one under the ownership of Tsakos (a Greek shipowner). So we may have another case of an expensive (specialized) new ship charged against the Greek trade account but operating under a Liberian flag (which happens to be the case).<br /><br /><br />Greece has two peculiarities in its trade deficit. One, we just spoke about has to do with the infrequent delivery of foreign built ships. The other is the petroleum products category which happens to be the largest export category for Greece. To be able to export petroleum products of higher value, you need to import crude petroleum first. And this is where Greece gets hit with a double whammy. Not only it has to buy at generally fluctuating high prices petroleum imports for its own energy needs but also let's say a double amount for its export business. And sometimes you have to buy the raw petroleum product in one year and sell the refined petroleum products the next year to book a profit. In other words, we have a distortion here which is very particular to Greece and other countries which have to import fuel and then re-export it in different forms. And there is also a seasonal factor. The fuels that Greece re-exports are in higher demand during the tourist season.<br /><br /><br />Bottom line: When looking at Greek trade statistics it's not easy to know at first glance whether trade deficits are due to bad Greek spending habits(over consumption) or distortions of arbitrage used by very few Greek companies with a vey large footprint in the Greek economy due to the nature of their particular businesses which are energy-hungry and price sensitive.<br />Dean Plassarashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13405528205926966179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-37733169553766476702019-01-02T09:04:54.440+01:002019-01-02T09:04:54.440+01:00I am inserting the link for the source of your inf...I am inserting the link for the source of your information because that website really presents some interesting information:<br /><br />http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-10-exports/<br /><br />Of particular relevance is the tab "opportunities" because it shows those product categories where Greece has substantial deficits, i. e. where Greece imports more than it exports. <br /><br />I can understand that Greece would have a huge deficit in the category of fuels. I have a bit of trouble understanding why Greece would have such a huge deficit with ships and boats. <br /><br />But it's the categories of machinery, pharmaceuticals, etc. where Greece should have opportunities. kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-12501034780847215422019-01-01T18:12:15.891+01:002019-01-01T18:12:15.891+01:00The following export product groups represent the ...The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in Greek global shipments during 2017. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from Greece.<br />Mineral fuels including oil: US$10.1 billion (31% of total exports)<br />Aluminum: $1.8 billion (5.6%)<br />Machinery including computers: $1.5 billion (4.6%)<br />Pharmaceuticals: $1.3 billion (4.1%)<br />Plastics, plastic articles: $1.3 billion (3.9%)<br />Electrical machinery, equipment: $1.2 billion (3.6%)<br />Vegetable/fruit/nut preparations: $1.1 billion (3.4%)<br />Fruits, nuts: $987.4 million (3%)<br />Fish: $753.4 million (2.3%)<br />Dairy, eggs, honey: $703.7 million (2.2%)<br />Greece’s top 10 exports accounted for 63.8% of the overall value of its global shipments.<br /><br />And by far the biggest import category are fuels, which explains the increase in imports as primarily fuel based: http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_greece_imports.html<br /><br />DeanDean Plassarashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13405528205926966179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-72761113179026838432018-12-31T20:35:25.868+01:002018-12-31T20:35:25.868+01:00I think the increased Greek exports are primarily ...I think the increased Greek exports are primarily attributed to the increased price of oil and gas imports. Greece is more than 50% dependent on oil imports for electricity generation whereas the EU average is closer to 30%. Greece eventually will shrink such oil imports but it can't happen tomorrow; it will take some time. It's happening though.<br /> DeanDean Plassarashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13405528205926966179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-20772910592298494702018-12-23T17:40:23.582+01:002018-12-23T17:40:23.582+01:00Thank you and the same to you (and all the guests ...Thank you and the same to you (and all the guests here)!kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-70076175418271700682018-12-23T16:43:25.807+01:002018-12-23T16:43:25.807+01:00Merry Christmas, Klaus, to you, your family, frien...Merry Christmas, Klaus, to you, your family, friends and guests here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-55012208663351275632018-12-21T21:34:42.164+01:002018-12-21T21:34:42.164+01:00The best proof that the structure of the Greek eco...The best proof that the structure of the Greek economy hasn't changed all that much despite all the 'reforms' is the direct correlation between increased purchasing power and increased imports. End result: current account deficit. Same of story.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-33861078222486227392018-12-21T17:29:40.547+01:002018-12-21T17:29:40.547+01:00https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Bank/News/Pre...https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Bank/News/PressReleases/DispItem.aspx?Item_ID=6279&List_ID=1af869f3-57fb-4de6-b9ae-bdfd83c66c95&Filter_by=DTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-10175229287735352752018-12-07T10:46:12.355+01:002018-12-07T10:46:12.355+01:00Klaus, a sunshine story off the agenda, if I may?
...Klaus, a sunshine story off the agenda, if I may?<br /><br />I assume you have followed Sunlight Systems after their May 2018 fire. If you have not you will be pleased to know that they handled it in an exemplary way. They were out with a press release the day after the fire, they have continuously kept customers, shareholders, employees and regulatory authorities informed. They had been prudent and taken out not only material damage cover, but also loss of earnings.<br />They are now up and running with even larger capacity, they have recently crowned the success with an EIB loan of EUR 12.5 million for R&D and further automation of the production. It is a case of professional handling of a crises (or preventing it).<br /><br />Lennard. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-89602468866901412422018-12-03T15:45:30.310+01:002018-12-03T15:45:30.310+01:00Klaus, a look at Trump's economic program, qui...Klaus, a look at Trump's economic program, quite interesting reference to GM in our larger context.<br /><br />https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis<br />/2018/12/-there-are-three-kinds-of-lies-lies-damned-lies-and-statistics-by-.html<br /><br /><i>The reason their sales dramatically fell because GM was approving anybody who could breath for credit during the years of 2012 - 2017 at their in house finance unit. Guess what? A lot of those buyers have defaulted on their auto loan. The average FICO score was around 530 if that tells you anything. People with poor credit talk and if you wanted a car you went to GM and bought a sedan from 2012 - 2017. Once the subprime auto loan default rate shot up inevitably the loans dried up. In 2014 GM sold 273,000 Chevrolet Cruze and this year they will be lucky to sell 125,000. Wallstreet performance at its best.</i><br /><br />I would appreciate your expertise on credit more generally, or the use of credit cards in the US vs Europe. We do have personal bankruptcy of course over here more recently vs let's say business bankruptcy. I found that a "legal liberal success" at the time. ... Although, maybe I shouldn't have, considering I never took a credit or over-used my credit card beyond my means.<br /><br />Thus: If I may go back to Yanis' argument, indirectly. Or my limited grasp of it, maybe? Is there any solid evidence that German banks compared to others in "old Europe", lend too much to, "the South" or the periphery? Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain? ?Iceland? Fully understanding the risk? And are there private vs state debts numbers in Greece over the decades? Ok. I understand. <b>Maybe?</b> What tricks does my country use?* Any idea? ... But statistics on private debts? I ask, since apparently members of old Europe were allowed partly on Yanis blog then. Benelux perspective.<br /><br />* Ok, if I may: A question I asked myself at the time from within my close to basic knowledge of finances or economics and/or national economics. Could Germany have handled or as "leader" have handled a Greek bankruptcy within the then existing framework? But couldn't. Since it would have been unable to handle both its own inner problems as a result of 2008 and the Greek debts held by German banks significant predatory behavior? I ask, since a German prof in one of the many talking circles I watched a Greek state bankruptcy within the existing framework, I seem to remember, was suggested an easy solution to matters. By a prof, I am sure not on economics or national economics though. Political science, maybe?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-77437720516320540282018-12-03T14:28:25.142+01:002018-12-03T14:28:25.142+01:00Let's see how Donald Trump will manage to bala...Let's see how Donald Trump will manage to balance the Jerusalem and Riyadh forces as ME's bastions against Iran. Where should Canada side?<br /><br />Considering the gathering storm? Yes, but I doubt it will be a cakewalk, not easy to turn back the clock on neoliberal politics post 1989/91. A brave new world of national interests only once again preparing for the gathering storm along the latest axis of evil? Iran (the world's top sponsor of terrorism?), Syria, Russia and China? Starting with dropping all white lies about the "liberal world order"? But yes, no doubt the earlier left's globalization politics critique have made it fiercefully to the right by now.<br /><br />But what do I know about politics. Other then being probably misguided by our own interior political struggle. In Kosovo this news item tells us two candidates struggle for the superior US attention:<br />http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/kosovo-s-rival-leaders-compete-for-us-support-12-03-2018<br /><br />Meaning? I am hesitant about populists. But yes, the "old parties" are under serious stress in "old Europe" too.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-73255151401581206242018-12-02T19:02:30.955+01:002018-12-02T19:02:30.955+01:00Excellent! Words that in my view could apply to ma...Excellent! Words that in my view could apply to many other countries.<br /><br />JdR, CanadaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-16333646112101080462018-12-01T18:33:12.585+01:002018-12-01T18:33:12.585+01:00I am a bit hesitant concerning what on first sight...I am a bit hesitant concerning what on first sight looks like a "Third Way" option. But I understand from a national perspective it may make sense. Europe no doubt complicates matters.<br /><br />You gotta wipe away my "genetic" suspicion that unity may be mostly desired if real or assumed/created enemies are out there. Wrong?<br /><br />Are they economic enemies only?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com