tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post2382038479958593081..comments2023-07-17T11:55:51.363+02:00Comments on ObservingGreece: Greek Sovereign Debt a Soap Opera?kleinguthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-55091612232567489762015-01-16T12:22:15.922+01:002015-01-16T12:22:15.922+01:00@Berliner
In many companies you would not have to ...@Berliner<br />In many companies you would not have to vote at the Annual General Meeting if you had equities of that size. You would have a right to NOMINATE one or more directors to the board. Funny thought, the High Commissioner in a new guise?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-51037374957157034742015-01-13T13:41:39.712+01:002015-01-13T13:41:39.712+01:00Equity? The loan conditions are such, that we shou...Equity? The loan conditions are such, that we should claim our right to participate in the next AGM 25 January and cast our vote for the next Board of Directors.<br />BerlinerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-88532959626651108312015-01-13T11:42:52.554+01:002015-01-13T11:42:52.554+01:00I heard that interview and immediately said to my ...I heard that interview and immediately said to my wife: "He is now opening the door for a compromise!"kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-80188945057126515812015-01-13T10:57:16.664+01:002015-01-13T10:57:16.664+01:00Mr. Kastner,
There is an open letter to the germ...Mr. Kastner, <br /><br />There is an open letter to the german public from Alexis Tsipras today in Handelsblatt. Unfortunately i can't give you a link in german, i only read it in greek. But it is clear that this is prof. Varoufakis' doing. So, it is now a rather safe bet to read prof. Varoufakis' articles to get an idea of what Tsipras will do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-84969184227448110142015-01-13T09:57:14.459+01:002015-01-13T09:57:14.459+01:00Mr. Kastner,
Another interesting thing Tsipras sa...Mr. Kastner,<br /><br />Another interesting thing Tsipras said in his interview, is that he won't accept to form goverment with ND, PASOK or River. Meaning, either he is trying to polarize the climate in his attempt to gain absolute majority or he is really intending to go to repeated elections until he gets absolute majority. If this happens though, the negotiations with the troika, will have to be postponed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-65668231325659739972015-01-13T09:07:16.850+01:002015-01-13T09:07:16.850+01:00Mr. Kastner,
Yesterday night, Alexis Tsipras had ...Mr. Kastner,<br /><br />Yesterday night, Alexis Tsipras had a 1 to 1 interview with a greek journalist. He wants "haircut at least 50% + moratorium + growth clause". When the journalist cornered him, whether he would accept instead of a haircut, an extension of maturities/interest reduction, he replied that he can't reveal his strategy, because others outside Greece are also watching.<br /><br />What this means. Given SYRIZA's past history of denying that a debt extension is a viable solution (they were shooting at Samaras every time he was mentioning it), it means that Tsipras will accept debt extension, in my humble opinion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-62829301912762051082015-01-13T09:04:38.364+01:002015-01-13T09:04:38.364+01:00Pablo Iglesias' - Podemos leader - message to ...Pablo Iglesias' - Podemos leader - message to greek voters (but i think also to Merkel):<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_i-8EksGQE8Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-33967983481259305392015-01-13T00:57:04.731+01:002015-01-13T00:57:04.731+01:00Zugzwang!*
So chancellor Merkel, it's your m...Zugzwang!* <br /><br />So chancellor Merkel, it's your move. What's it going to be?<br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/01/zugzwang-spanish-radical-left-party.html#wMKD2mpWU5PojFYv.99<br /><br />* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZugzwangS.K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16049843199985216062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-33350616631929582222015-01-12T19:31:20.709+01:002015-01-12T19:31:20.709+01:00Mr. Kastner,
You are of course correct and this i...Mr. Kastner,<br /><br />You are of course correct and this is, i think, why various SYRIZA economists have also spoken of moratorium or for growth linked clause. Because they want to have something left for their "stimulous" program (if one can call it so). The problem is, that each SYRIZA economist has said his own theory. At the end, you don't know who to believe. <br /><br />Professor Lapavitsas, is SYRIZA's latest "acquisition". He was always, since the beginning, pro-drachma and he was proposed to be candidate for these elections, by the more radical wing of SYRIZA. Here's a recent article:<br /><br />http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/29/syriza-greece-austerity-eu<br /><br />Note: I won't tire you with greek text, but in a greek article, he wrote that "SYRIZA's program is 20 beur short and should always have drachma as plan B".<br /><br />When a SYRIZA candidate for the parliament says that his program is 20 beur short, what's more to say...<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-90669062068930035462015-01-12T18:03:11.770+01:002015-01-12T18:03:11.770+01:0060% of GDP would amount to about 110 BEUR. That wo...60% of GDP would amount to about 110 BEUR. That would be the amount of debt which Greece should easily be able to shoulder according to Maastricht. Now what do you want to take as a market rate? I suppose that a market rate for a Greece with only 60% debt would be much lower than the 6-9% which are going rates at the moment. But it ain't going to be zero. Let's assume it would be 3%. Then your interest burden on the Maastricht debt level would be 3,3 BEUR. A lot of money when you might have the chance to get away with no or very little interest.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-71754809625479826172015-01-12T17:59:02.804+01:002015-01-12T17:59:02.804+01:00Someone explained to me on twitter that it is inde...Someone explained to me on twitter that it is indeed interest + principal (i. e. annuities). Just proves the point that principal maturities need to be scheduled out way into the future (minimum 50 years) and interest needs to be brought close to zero. <br /><br />Regarding the ECB. there are conflicting opinions. One 'expert' told me that, yes, Greece will receive over 2 BEUR for 2014 but, no, it has not received much of that yet. According to that person, the rebates will be paid if and when the program is put into place again.kleinguthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12491174042954678023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-43158523018385285452015-01-12T17:32:04.772+01:002015-01-12T17:32:04.772+01:00It doesn't add up. He must be talking about in...It doesn't add up. He must be talking about interest + maturities. In that aspect, 2015 is a particularly tough year. The Greek government must repay over 25 billion euros in IMF loans, ECB bonds and T-bills.<br /><br />As for Greece's domestic debts. Impossible to solve without foreign capital for as long as Greece doesn't have a national currency.<br /><br />Oh, and it's not accurate to state that Greece receives interest rebates from the ECB. *Some* Eurozone central-banks do that, others don't (on the basis that it's illegal government financing).Jim Sliphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15325962115410722474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5882645467378797266.post-38500615692378852972015-01-12T16:02:38.211+01:002015-01-12T16:02:38.211+01:00Mr. Kastner,
I watched the video and the translat...Mr. Kastner,<br /><br />I watched the video and the translation is accurate enough. It is of 2 days ago. Obviously Rumeliotis must have been confused (he is also former banker) and the numbers he gives are the value of bonds to roll over each year. It is true that this year there are about 24 beur of bonds, but clearly these are debt to be refinanced, can't possibly be interests or the bond value itself would be huge. He is actually being asked repeatedly by the journalists to clarify and he insists that these are interests, but the more they ask, the more he seems like if he had some things to say and he doesn't want to be interrupted and maybe he is just saying yes without thinking.<br />For the little that my opinion may worth, i don't think that SYRIZA's economists don't understand what extension is and how it affects yearly payments. However, i think Tsipras is shrewed enough, to have identified a major weakness in Samaras' line of debt sustainability. And the weakness is rather obvious. Samaras has never undertaken a comunication campaign to explain better what you try to explain through the links that you post. Yes, some do understand such things or have searched on their own, but most understand better a figure as % of GDP and Tsipras promicing to "cut at least 50% of that". By following this line, Tsipras appears as champion of the just, while Samaras a coward that hides behind technicalities that one can't understand. It's a bit like when a German ordinary man, understands better "we gave 60 beur to Greece", rather than trying to discern between effective disbursements and warranties.<br />In my mind, Tsipras will accept any debt deal, as long as it allows him some laxity for himself. He doesn't want to come back and simply say "and now we continue from where Samaras left it, prepare for new cuts". That's my idea of him, although it is hard to understand Tsipras. The debt is also something everyone understands as concept, so good point to build an electoral campaign around (and avoid questions about details on the economic program).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com